to borrow a phrase.....
So clearly I am wrong. I admit it. My fall election prognostication is so completely uninformed about public sentiment as to be meaningless. By large measure the public has spoken and the result will be quite an unprecedented blow-out. Of course Governor Swann might disagree.
and this must be the only political race with almost no undecided voters 4 months out... almost unprecedented in American politics...
To be fair, the daily KQV question is clearly labeled an "opinion question" and not a poll or survey... and if I remember how they describe it on the radio there is some disclaimer to the effect that it is not a scientific poll. Nonetheless, this just has to be the kiss of death for the MD campaign. That isn't meant to be flippant... but anyone with a chance of winning hearts and minds in the city is probably not going to show up that well on a KQV poll question like that. A form of countersignaling?
but more maps:
Here are the comparative results from the Roddey results (just within the city) of the 2003 ACE race and again for side-by-side comparison the Weinroth results for Mayor in 2005. Also Chris S. asked about what the results look liked if you lumped together all the votes that didn't go to O'Connor in the Nov 05 General election. I am not sure what that really tells you since it's not that different from the results for Weinroth... but here it is:
and one more map... this seems to be where all the hope for a potential MD victory comes from. The first race for ACE where Roddey beat Wecht.
Of course, the Roddey victory that year was county-wide and as explained in the City Paper, Roddey still only got 37.5% within the City of Pittsburgh proper. Is that 37.5% a valid benchmark for what MD could get in the fall? It's a double edged argument to hold that race up as an example. If it is a valid datapoint then you also have to believe the trend for Republicans in the city is decidedly down: Roddey in 1999 (37.5%), Roddey in 2003 (28.8%), Weinroth in 2005 (27%). But the circumstances of the first-ever race ever for the post of ACE were pretty out of the ordinary.
Take what the City Paper said about the bad publicity Cyril Wecht had going into that race. Does it really compare to the current situation? I actually think the CP misses a bigger factor. If you think any of the infighting within the local Democratic Party these days is serious, it really pales in comparison to the longstanding fighting between the Caliguiri and Wecht factions of the party. You can get a taste of some of that history in this PG piece. So the higher than average % for Roddey (though still far short of victory) clearly reflected some of those internal defections. That solid east end block of votes in that map has to be that core Caliguiri support... i.e. as much anti-Wecht as it was pro-Roddey. To assume that same support falls on one side of either a Peduto-Ravenstahl or Ravenstahl-Desantis split is unfounded. It was a very personal fight.
If you really want to push the point and say there is a similar cleavage within the Democratic party these days, you need to think about that some. The thing about the Caliguiri and Wecht factions is that both were made up of a significant number of likely voters. If you are thinking there is some similar Peduto-Ravenstahl type of infighting going on today..... emotionally you are correct, but I bet only one side is made up of likely voters in the fall.
1. apologies to (Sir) Ed Heath (the Pittsburgh version that is).