Lies, Damn Lies and Pre-Election Polling
Remember it was a very short time ago that polls were saying Raja was making this a race with 'polls' saying it was barely a 10 point gap between the two candidates (41% to 31% with 28% undecided). If you looked at it from an angle it might have been a 9 point gap. Single digits! A race!
Just 5 days ago the same said polls had at least said it had widened to 18 points.
The final results.. 62-38 or a 24 point gap.
I have a simple observation. There were not even enough people paying enough attention to this race to explain any shift in the polls over the last few days, or certainly over the last few weeks. People voted today as they would have if they had been asked to vote last month. It is not that there really were 28% undecided last month. Just consider if that were true. The core votes for Raja certainly remained core Raja voters and that early poll matched his results at just about 31% exactly. It means that virtually 100% of the 'undecided' voters all decided en masse for Fitz in just the last couple weeks. No, of course they didn't. Or if that is really true most need to rethink the interpretation of what 'undecided' means.
So as the next mayoral race officially kicks off today, maybe the mayor does not have as much to worry about as one might have inferred.
There were just a shade under 230K votes cast for Allegheny County Executive. 229,419 to be precise in the preliminary count. I predicted 240K votes for that race which isn't bad given other numbers that were being floated. Turnout overall was just barely under 27%. I am a bit unclear why the county really predicted between 30-35% which would have meant between 10% and 30% more people at the polls than actually showed up. You can't even say weather kept people away since it was pretty amazing weather for a fall election. Imagine if there has been some more typical weather what that turnout would have been.
Yeah, yeah. Maps. There will be maps. But I think you know what they look like.