Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Who came to the party?

PG notes the semi-historic low turnout for the election yesterday. Remember the weather was great for a November election.  Just imagine if the weather was bad, or really bad?  I still think they ran that blurb just as an excuse to use that stock image. 

For the curious....  of the 1300+ individual voting districts in Allegheny County, here are the voting districts with the highest and lowest turnouts yesterday.  The two of the very lowest turnouts are the jail and the Pitt dorms.

District Turnout %
KENNEDY DIST 4 53.9
ROBINSON DIST 5 52.1
ROSSLYN FARM 48.4
GREEN TREE DIST 1 48.0
ELIZABETH TP WD 1 DIST 1 47.2
MT LEBANON WARD 1 DIST 3 47.2
KENNEDY DIST 3 47.1
PITTSBURGH WRD 14 DIST 19 47.0
FOREST HILLS DIST 1 46.7
MT LEBANON WARD 3 DIST 1 46.6
District Turnout %
PITTSBURGH WARD 1 DIST 1 2.2
PITTSBURGH WARD 4 DIST 8 2.4
PITTSBURGH WARD 5 DIST 15 2.6
PITTSBURGH WARD 5 DIST 16 4.2
PITTSBURGH WARD 4 DIST 14 5.7
PITTSBURGH WARD 14 DIST 7 5.8
PITTSBURGH WARD 4 DIST 7 6.2
PITTSBURGH WARD 4 DIST 5 7.2
PITTSBURGH WARD 4 DIST 16 7.6
PITTSBURGH WRD 13 DIST 18 8.1
PITTSBURGH WARD 22 DIST 4 8.6

9 Comments:

Anonymous MH said...

I'm not seeing evidence that the people near the libraries that were going to be closed were more likely to go vote.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011 2:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

By my calculation, about 92 percent of Allegheny Co. adults are registered to vote. Does that seem right? It seems a bit high, but I guess with motor voter being around for so long, and county elections department record keeping so far behind the curve (i.e., many people registered that are in fact dead or moved), it could be up around there.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011 2:25:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

I've addressed the registration stats explicitly here in the past. Let me find that post to avoid retyping.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011 2:29:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

http://nullspace2.blogspot.com/2008/06/parsing-primary.html

Wednesday, November 09, 2011 2:32:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

http://nullspace2.blogspot.com/2007/11/mythical-dead-voter.html

Wednesday, November 09, 2011 2:35:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks Chris. I'm still wondering, though, if it's really true that the vast majority of county adults are registered to vote. I always kind of thought the report of low turnout among REGISTERED VOTERS missed the bigger picture of significantly lower turnout for ALL ADULTS. But perhaps it doesn't, if my 92 percent registered number is right.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011 2:38:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

From an academic perspecitive voter turnout is not meaningful because of those issues and more. I will sometimes use voter participation, ballots as a proportion of voting age population.

Motor voter and related tends to get a lot of folks registered who never intend to vote.

My numbers lead me to think county is pretty good at clearing folks who die. Might be a delay, but no more than a half year or so on average. There are some anomalies that pop up.. but on average I don't think there are too many dead voters on the rolls. Many take it as a basic truththe other way though. I have this discussion every now and then.

Also note that over time.. by the time you get to older age groups the rate of registration is pretty high. AARP may even require you to register and vote to join don't you think?

Where I think there are 'ghosts' are younger people who move away and there isn't always an easy feedback to the county folks to remove them. So folks in their 20's and early 30's are probably over-registered to a degree which winds up impacting that 92% which I do think is what works out. So I think your number is in itself correct.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011 2:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks again Chris. Yes, likely/frequent/super voters are where it's at in terms of analysis and winning elections.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011 4:47:00 PM  
Anonymous Tim McBriem said...

BTW, whose writing Early Returns these days? Three posts citing your work today alone. You should at least get a free subscription to PGe!

Wednesday, November 09, 2011 4:55:00 PM  

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