Thursday, May 31, 2012

In Pittsburgh: Old is always new again

So Pittsburgh is being chosen as a center for energy education because??  Something new? No, we have long... very long... been Energy-Burgh.

and I see the news is catching up to this announcement from earlier in the week..  We are even a leader in..... Propane?  So we may have more sedans on the streets of Pittsburgh proper running propane than natural gas?  Someone didn't send the Natural Gas Uber Alles memo to the French.   I am curious if we actually ever got the hydrogen fuel cell taxis here that were written about.

 I have to admit I did finally see a customer using the natural gas pump in the Strip District.

Don't forget... Not new, but there is a recent news mention reminding me that real energy future for the region may be just over the border in West Virginia which may someday become the new center of all things geothermal. I volunteer for the delegation to go to Iceland to investigate that. 

More history:  PNC is buying the Lord and Taylor building. It's all very Back to the Future'ish. 

I guess the exception may be that a 'runner's world' may open in Shadyside. I guess there is no hope the Balcony will really reopen.  Google is fun: I still occassionally get e-mail from folks who seem to find that article and presume it was real. 

Seriously though...  Between PNC's continued construction, the new Oxford development that was sort-of announced last week and all the other development Downtown I still have a real question.  Given the scale of transit cuts coming, and lack of any new parking supply Downtown...  can Downtown Pittsburgh really support more daytime workers?  Even that debate is anachronistic since much of the debate in the 1940's here was on the same topic and lead to not only the creation of the Pittsburgh Parking Authority but a lot of the public support of parking garages Downtown.  All part of the Pittsburgh möbius.

Can we at least finally stop referring to it as the 'Lord and Taylor' Building?  That is at most an itinerant modernism. 

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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Workers materializing somehow

So the monthly news cycle over the latest dump of labor force data for the Pittsburgh region is pretty muted per the  PGTribPBT.  Not much to say since the numbers are nominally unchanged and any changes you parse out of it are likely well within sample error or other variations that should not be overinterpreted. Yet again, the state is saying the region's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.8% in April.   Just fyi the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' calculation is coming in at 6.7% for April.

But here is the bigger  deal again.  The national news is all about how the labor force participation rate is falling as it has been since the 'Great Recession'. 

Yet here is the region's labor force in April of each year since 1990.



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Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Cartophiles above and beyond

h/t DigitalUrban but I am utterly obliged to pass on the video below.

Dr. Kerski by the way... since all things to lead back to Pittsburgh.. was part of the team of folks at ESRI who helped put together the Pittsburgh Historical and Mapping site viewer that went online a couple months ago. 

Now if only Bob could sing....  (inside joke)

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Saturday, May 26, 2012

Bricks

New bricks being staged for installation at Soldiers and Sailors Hall in Pittsburgh a few years ago.

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Friday, May 25, 2012

Cleveburgh Steel

Remember when the steel industry rated local news?  

The 24 hour news cycle can be brutal.  Just beyond greater Pittsburgh, but near the center mass of Cleveburgh is Trumbull County, Ohio... home to Warren, Ohio and part of the Mahoning Valley were these two stories recently:  

24 hours ago the headline was:  Valley employment picture improving

Then a half day later:Over 1,000 RG Steel Workers to be Laid Off.  All of those 1,000 jobs are located in Trumbull County, a county with a total population just over 41K in 2010. 

No schadenfreude here...  those headlines were de rigeur here we all know.  Still, the recent news for Pennsylvania is that mass layoffs are low and declining.


and while some say steel in the greater region is still improving, there are some bigger issues on the horizon.  Steel is ever more an internationally traded commodity.  Just yesterday the US slapped tariffs on steel imports from India.  Whatever the details are in that trade spat, the bigger issue that will only exacerbate the problems of domestic steel producers is the continued appreciation of the US dollar.  Stronger dollar = harder for US producers to sell products elsewhere.  It is a particular issue in the steel industry.

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Thursday, May 24, 2012

"We don’t want hordes of tourists coming in"

While this piece all seems to be in a political context, it really is much more.  See GlobalPost.com: Pittsburgh: an acquired taste

Lots of great wordsmithing in the piece.. really... but this one quote is really something and actually quite insightful when it comes to economic history:

“Go out to Monessen, and you’d think you were in Yekaterinburg circa 1990,” he said. Dan and I actually were both there at that time – a dying city of what was then the collapsing Soviet Union
.
Somehow they spelled it 'Yinsers' later on in the article though.   Alas. 

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Zero is good

Nothing new for us... but check out the latest from Zillow on underwater mortgages in the US by metro area: Despite Home Value Gains, Underwater Homeowners Owe $1.2 Trillion More than Homes’ Worth

I believe it is showing we are by far the lowest incidence of 'underwater' mortages, i.e. those whose home values are less than their mortgage equity. 

But in particular check out where we rank in table 1: Negative Equity Snapshot... and in particular the last column there.  Zero is good!  Most of those numbers are still scary.

They have a neat interactive graphic of the national picture as well


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Tuesday, May 22, 2012

When an exodus isn't

So these rumors have been bubbling for some time, but Jon Delano/KDKA talks about the next big office building that may be built downtown. New Skyscraper Could Be Built In Downtown Pittsburgh


But note this quote:

“We’ve really been fighting this exodus, if you will, from downtown Pittsburgh and from the region, and now that’s reversing,” Allegheny County Executive Rich Fitzgerald told KDKA Money Editor Jon Delano.


What 'exodus'?   I've been throught his before, the number of jobs located in the city of Pittsburgh has been one of the most remarkably consistent metrics.  Roughly 300K jobs were located in the city of Pittsburgh proper in 1960 and it has been about the same exact number over the last 20 years.  Given that large parts of the city are likely declining, that stabilility is being driven by the strength of jobs located Downtown and Oakland.  There may be fluctuations year by year, but clearly NO EXODUS.  That is the story, not that there is some rebound from a trough that didn't happen even through the 'great recession'.

If you really parse it, consider that Downtown recently had one large new skyscraper built in the form of PNC 3... has another large PNC tower already announced. For there to be continued supply additions despite all the new recent additions is a sign that there was no exodus in any recent past either. It all is an argument that sounds like what I reacted to when I once asked "Is Downtown Dead?".  The answer was no a decade ago and is clearly still no today.

But this new potential building is interesting.  If indeed it is for a new Chevron tenant, a potential mentioned here already, it really would be a big boomerang moment for the company that claims Gulf as one of its progenitors. Chatter is also that Chevron has been pressuring for the city to go back on its legislated 'ban' on new drilling within city limits.  If there is a big new project involving Chevron you have to wonder how that debate will progress.

and if yet another big tower gets announced... with presumably some tenants lined up since this type of thing will not be built on spec...  then I hope the bemoaning of a potential US Steel departure from Downtown will not be overhyped.  Personally I can't believe the building's landord lets US Steel get away unless they are confident they can line up new tenants once they are gone. 

Now the real question.  Remember it's not only this new potential tower, but the PNC tower just beginning, that will be added to Downtown office space.  Presumably all that new office space that will have respectable occupancy rates and Dilbert-density employee counts.  So with most bus routes being eliminated and with parking supply Downtown essentially capped, does anyone want to spot the over/under for what daily parking rates will be Downtown in say 2015? 

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Inflection? Mirage? or Markovian Balk

I will point out that one week ago the Pirates pulled ahead of where they were last year at this time.. at least in terms of how far out of 1st place they are. Will mid-season have the same hype?


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Monday, May 21, 2012

View of Pittsburgh from over the pond

Via the Guardian in the UK is this online oped: Regeneration in practice: lessons from across the pond

Recognize the photo?

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Sunday, May 20, 2012

Speaking of History

An anniversary of one of the more dramatic and heroic stories of Pittsburgh past is coming up.  This week is an anniversary of what happened on May 23, 1978 atop the remnant of the Brady Street Bridge  (its successor to be renamed the Birmingham Bridge a year later) which was being prepared for demolition.  Local ironworker Ralph Winner had to have his leg amputated by Dr. Joseph Young nearly 126 feet in the air.  Winner was preparing the bridge for its demoltion when shifting girders trapped him atop the bridge.


Not just this one story, but it seems to me that Pittsburgh is responsible for a remarkable part of the modern history of paramedicine in the United States, yet I am not sure there is a full history of it written up.

and the Pittsburgh Press version:


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Saturday, May 19, 2012

Like it's 1999

1999 is like an eternity ago. Since it is back in the news it really is more a reminder of how history has mostly forgotten (not on this blog I will mention) the whole history of Grant Street '99.   For one view of the whole matter review this old column by Dennis Roddy: Judging Right of Free Speech.

No matter how high profile you think any recent news in the nexus of local politics, the internet, journalism and hyperlocal muckracking has been, the history of Grantstreet99 is more seminal and impactful to this day. What am I talking about?  No bells and whistles for the earlier days of the internet. Still viewable is this April 1999 version of the website known as GrantStreet99. You will get the drift pretty quickly.

The story is not about some lone contrarian voice, nor about any particular accusation highlighted on the site at all...  but the lengths then superior court Judge Orie-Melvin went to silence the web site and its author. Why? She didn't like the criticism.  So the then anonymous webmaster ('blog' was yet to be coined) was sued for defamation in Common Pleas Court... after Orie-Melvin had been denied standing to sue in Virginia.

The litigation of Grantstreet99  would in the end be decided by none other than the ubiquitous Judge Wettick, and eventually backed by the state supreme court, who ruled against Judge Orie-Melvin and protected the anonymity of the GS99 author.

Unverified as best I can tell, but one has claimed the identity of Grantstreet99 incidental to other litigation against Allegheny County.  Just seems like he might be worth interviewing in light of recent developments. 

If you don't think it all that important a little episode, consider the counterfactual and what it would have meant if Orie-Melvin's case had gone the other way? 

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Friday, May 18, 2012

Pittsburgh Scoring Jobs

Some new jobs numbers are out for April. These are the Pittsburgh jobs, not the state data in the news today. Not much change from trend. Region up YOY and for April only below the 2001 über peak that I have argued is a bit anomalous.

Maybe we will just summarize in a graph below.  Note always the scale of the axis.  So the slope of the trend I put in there may appear larger than you might think. It is not the largest rates of job growth, but when you think about it, it is a lot steadier than some in town presume.   Why is it not so large?  You have to consider that by the middle of the 1990's the natural population change for the region turned negative.  More deaths than births reflect changes long ago, and are not really reflective of current economic competitiveness in any way.  Yet fewer people mean fewer jobs needed.  Roughly 2/3rds of the regional economy is for jobs that provide goods and services to the regional population.  So at the end of the day there were jobs being taken outof the local economy no matter and continue to this day.  Pittsburgh remains the only large metro region with natural population decline.  Still, for everyone who is convinced all positive economic stories of Pittsburgh are ephemeral, or for some who believe it is all outright fiction, here is my annotated version of the last 20 years of job growth in the Pittsburgh region. Unctuous bafflegab it may very well be.





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Thursday, May 17, 2012

Afternoon news implosion

So this is ominous via the Atlanta Journal Constitution today: Delta Cutting Staff.

If you do not read the tea leaves they don't leave it to the imagination with this quote
"Meanwhile, Delta said it plans to further cut back international flights, just a day after celebrating the opening of Atlanta's new international terminal with additional gates for growth."
The new terminal down in Atlanta will of course be serviced by the Pittsburgh-made shuttle that were sold to them by Bombardier.  So we are a leader in transit systems... just not ones we actually use ourselves. 

Of course it was already a bad news day out at the airport: Frontier Airlines cancels new Pittsburgh-Milwaukee service (after just TWO WEEKS?)

and I swear I was about to post a comment to the effect of.. will we ever see the fountain at the point work again. Apparently hope springs eternal.

Assessments... yeah, assessments. What is there to say? Later.
Since it is soon to be international Facebook day, I thought it might be worth remembering the zenith of Pittsburgh.com.  It is a bit scary to think what the Facebook IPO would price at if it were still 1999.
and this sure seems relevant to us. From the Walkonomics Blog: Does hilliness affect walkability?
My inner Libertarian is confused by this subsidy a bit.

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Sic Semper Census

So sometimes the media really confuses me.  The USAToday is running a story on some census data dumped today:  Census data shows minorities now a majority of U.S. births. OK.  but the picture they run with the story is of a Pittsburgh hospital with local babies wrapped in Terrible Towels.  So the picture is of the region that the story least applies to in the entire nation. Huh?

Probably a lot to parse in that data when I have time.  My quick look just at Allegheny County looks like the estimated population change between 2010 and 2011 is mostly being driven by an increase in population among those 25-44.  Not much growth, maybe even some decline in children and decline in elderly (65+)... so the news from earlier in the year that Allegheny county might be growing of late looks to be in those prime workforce years.  Reinforces my belief that it is a worker migration story. 

PG is running a story on how the Borough of Zelienople in Butler County is appealing their census 2010 population count: Zelienople Census County Questioned .   I had some long-ish comments on Zelienople's appeal in a a post here from February: The Politics of (really) small numbers. it is kind of an interesting question what is up.

The biggest news in Census land these days.   The House of Representatives apparently introduced an appropriations bill that will defund the entire American Community Survey program and other long-running programs. Not replace them with anything.  So in our data-driven world, one of the main sources of data will go away.    

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Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Almost, almost, last Maglev post

As contrasts with what was the first post here that mentioned maglev.

So I give them credit for tenacity for sure, but the ghost has abandoned ship.  The results of the final auction of assets of Maglev Inc. which took place on March 6th have been filed.  By news accounts the total public funding into the local high speed maglev venture amounted to $23 million in federal and $7 million in state funding over the years though I suspect a full accounting has not really ever been completed. (Why not? Oh, nevermind that) There was at its inception there was even private money from Japanese investors.  I've wondered whether they got any of that back over the years?  A bit more surprising if you follow that link was that even back then in 1990 they were really planning to imminently float a larger financial package in the markets. Merely a question of which financial advisor to use.  Decisions, decisions.


It was all such a pretty picture.


I digress.  Did they make back 10 cents on the dollar?  In its final tally the auctioning off of Maglev's assets brought in a gross total of $549,202.16.  Before that money was paid to anyone some auction expenses of $40,059 were due.  A buyers premium collected by the auction house amounted to $82,380.  So if my math is right is works out to maybe a bit under $427 thousand payable to debtors and debtors in possession.  Probably will not cover the unpaid rent let alone legal fees to close this all out.


All that is left to write is the history.

Don't get me wrong.  I love trains and all, but why did anyone ever believe this would happen?  It was all such a cognitive dissonance with reality that even when Maryland appeared to drop out, leaving Pittsburgh to 'win' the competition for demonstration money for this, the result was to find new regions other than Pittsburgh to consider.  It just wasn't ever going to happen here.
If it ever happened it wasn't just an incremental technology for us, but akin to Merlin returning the visit to Connecticut.  I just looked it up and did the division:  Amtrak's service from Washington, DC to Pittsburgh covers all of 299 miles in just barely under 8 hours.  An average of under 38 miles per hour, and that is if it isn't late.  Faster than George made it which is something.  On a bad day the train might not be able to keep up with Lance Armstrong.

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Billboard Alley Redux

So the news has this: Advertisers, city council continue 'Pittsburgh' sign dispute

Something new about this whole argument?

Seems not.  From the Mount Washington News, December 3, 1954 (also see related article on page 1)


Anyone notice we were a bit more precise in our geography a half century ago.  The whole argument goes back much further.  See The Index from 1906: Billboards, a menace to health. Or for the more complete treatment: Fighting “Civic Smallpox”: The Civic Club of Allegheny County’s Campaign for Billboard Regulation, 1896-1917, by Kristin Szylvian Bailey.  Western Pennsylvania Historical Magazine, January 1987.

I mean.. this new episode in Pittsburgh's billboard saga is more bar stool than fauteuil on the chair-scale.

and a reader pointed this out to me.. I have not really been paying much attention to the comments via facebook now running on the PG.  But on this billboard meme are some curious exchanges on all this yesterday. See:   Bayer wants repairs to iconic Pittsburgh sign. Doug continuing to fire away is not all that surprising.. but some completely non-sequitur hating on community benefits agreements in there?  I am pretty sure there were no CBA's in existance in 1954.  The billboard seems to also be the cause of all the young college graduates leaving town.  Good of an explanation as any of the others I guess. 

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Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Bets, bets and more bets

So most skipped over the story of how Neil Bluhm may be buying out the remnant of the late Don Barden's ownership group down at the Rivers Casino.

Don Barden had a diverse mix of equity ownership, but it was still highly leveraged and in the end the collapse of some Lehman Brothers financing undid his ownership of the enterprise.*  At its nadir Neil Bluhm came into the picture provided the capital to keep the enterprise going, but with Barden and his ownership group becoming a very minority owner.

Who had Don Barden recruited into the original mix?  One of the more interesting players was the Retirement System for the City of Detroit. They originally were not directly equity owners but had this loan guarantee which made them some $$ if their backing was never needed. Of course it didn't work out that way. When all imploded, their loan guarantee cost them money and in return they got a small bit of the equity already well diluted in Don Barden's shell. Just last year the ownership of that group was restructured and the Detroit pension system had to put up $54 million in cash. See: Investor's Double Down on Rivers Casino.

I can't tell from the reporting if the latest machination includes Bluhm buying out the equity of the pension system or not. Below is the picture of how the refinancing/recapitalization worked out. Only a dotted line out to the Detroit Pension folks. Beware the dotted line may be one lesson. Who knows what the Detroit pension funds are holding the remaining casino investment for on their books. If the pension system's equity does get bought out, one thing that likely will result is that they will have to reconcile the value of the asset on their books; likely a small fraction of what they put in at any point. It is a loss that has already not gone unnoticed in Detroit.

Given that it the pension system's investment started as a loan guarantee, it was in a sense a highly leveraged derivative not all that much dissimilar to what has put JP Morgan the news of late. Sort of like they sold a put they never expected to be in the money. They could pocket the up front premia and walk away.  As much as I can tell from the superficial reporting on the JPMorgan fiasco, I think they were selling selling credit default swaps with a presumption they would not be needed and in a nearly idential way the bet turned sour. 

The result is that the pension system's  IRR must be a big negative percentage of their original 'investment' at this point. Will we ever know what their potential % loss was?  Even though the Detroit Pension system has a lot more openness than say the City of Pittsburgh's pension system.. probably not. Speaking of openness, note that the city of Pittsburgh has not put out for public consumption any investment info since 2010.  In Detroit at leastyou can read their monthly or more frequent board minutes.


So what eh? The City of Pittsburgh isn't actually violating any law or regulation in putting out so little information.  Pennsylvania has literally over 3200 individual pension funds out there. ... It remains a big mystery not only why the public knows so little about what the specific investments are in all of them... but why nobody ever cares to ask. I have to bet that if there was a comprehensive look at all the specific investments made by all those plans there may be a few surprises in the details.

* as disclosure I once worked at Lehman Brothers, though I couldnt begin to tell you who put money into casinos. Straight LIBOR derivatives is all I got close to.



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Sunday, May 13, 2012

Cleveburgh Casino Concerns

Big day Monday up at the other end of Cleveburgh.  Some day someone is going to have lots of fodder for a paper on the spatial patterns of local casino markets.  What do I mean? Up in Detroit the headlines are all about how: Ohio's new casinos could cost cash-strapped Detroit $30 million a year, analysis predicts.  The analysis comes from Mckinsey and it is not alone.  It is the same concern up in Erie.  In Pittsburgh before it was built the notional new local casino here was expected to draw most of its business from a cachement area of 150 miles or less.  How close is Cleveland?  or more importantly, how much of population within 150 miles of Pittsburgh is also within 150 miles of Cleveland?  Break out the compass and dividers.

According to the AP, it is such a big deal that: Cleveland Casino may begin Rust Belt revival.  Really? They are not dumb up the turnpike there, they know full well what some of the indirect economic impacts are likely to be.  They also know some of the odds. Once they get going it is going to be interesting to compare the payout rates for slots up there vs. here.

In the end it may all be about the food.  One thing that may be a real competitive advantage up there....  the spread.  Speaking of competitive advantage, the bit of underappreciated news from last month is that down in West Virginia they seem to have implicitly voted for keeping their casino instead of having to move it to attract the ethylene cracker that was big news here.  Voting with their (virtual) chips is one way to describe it. 


And Inspector Renault may not be as prolific as Yogi Berra (Happy Birthday Yogi!) but he was just was wise.  Funny how they are already squabbling over the money the new casino may bring in up in Cleveland.

A bit non sequitur, but speaking of Cleveburgh... from last year, but after my oped on Cleveburgh that was in the Cleveland Plain Dealer, I didn't notice this very anti-Cleveburgh piece from NE Ohio: This idea is the Pits.  All I can say is folks read some things a bit too literally.  I saw some commentary back then on the piece that suggested I was proposing some sort of Cleveland-Pittsburgh government be formed and how bad that would be. Yeah, that is what I was proposing??

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Saturday, May 12, 2012

From the Null Space A&E desk

File under things that are just what they are.... A sublime performance from last week.

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Friday, May 11, 2012

Does cutting public transit limit access to church?

So, here is yet another angle on all the transit cuts inbound here: From uscatholic.org: Does cutting public transit limit access to church?

With a focus on Allegheny County of course.

If you missed it.. some colleagues of mine did a bit more formal calculation of the numbers that will be impacted by the transit cuts.  See: Impact of Port Authority Route Eliminations.

But if you really want to start adding up the costs of all this, I still say start with this unfortunate natural experiment and read this journal article and extrapolate: The Benefits of Prenatal Care: Evidence from the PAT Bus Strike.  by William N. Evans Diana S. Lien. Department of Economics University of Maryland and CNA Corporation. March 2002. 

Such a long way in such a short time from when Allegheny County and the Port Authority were on the cutting edge of public transit in the nation.








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Thursday, May 10, 2012

Nobody's on nobody's side

Long story... but I'm back.

So I learn from Early Returns that the City of Pittsburgh's euphemism as oversight board, otherwise known as the Intergovernmental Cooperation Authority (ICA),  is still around.   Who knew?


They seem to be looking at the city's debt.  I need to update my graphic below which is my calculation of the long term trend in the city's debt when calculated per household. But then I realized it really is a philosophical question these days what the city's debt is. 


So remember the whole debate over the notional 'asset' the city's pension fund now counts.  A promise of future parking tax revenue is actuarially monetized to be counted as an asset.   I still want to know ..... if it is really an 'asset' could the pension board sell it to a third party?  Is that almost the definition of 'asset'. OK,  skip that, but it has a big corollary that goes like this:


So if the pension board is counting the diverted parking revenues as an 'asset'.. is it not the case that the same promised revenue stream is an equally valued debt to the city of Pittsburgh's accounting? 


Why ask why?

But if you look at my un-updated graphic below (from this old post) you see the long term trend in city debt when caluclated per resident household in the city of Pittsburgh.  What you see is a big jump in the mid/late 1990's when the city of Pittsburgh floated a big Pension Bond to put $$ into the pension fund.  So was not this big new and notional asset in the form of parking revenue meant to do the same exact thing?  Yes? No?   Think about it?  The difference between the two capitalizations is that one was at least a bit more honest than the other.  Sure seems to me that one side of a ledger got some money that is mostly being ignored on the other. It all might work out if there was a City of Pittsburgh central bank, but otherwise a bit problematic. 
 

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Sunday, May 06, 2012

Diasporan of the day

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Friday, May 04, 2012

The Great Allegheny County Assessment Paradox

Let's call this the great Allegheny County assessment paradox.

Washington Plaza Downtown is being put up for sale with an asking price of $55 million.

Note that its current base year assessment: $23 million.

Its new 2012 assessment: $30 million.

I have no idea, but I bet they are appealing nonetheless. Sure, they are asking for more than they will likely get... but are they going to get half of what they are asking.  And have we fixed the transfer tax problem here in Allegheny County?

Note from the story the current ownership of the building...  the Detroit public pension system. Maybe they will make up what they lost on their casino investment here?

Note also the view from the window.  Circa May 1, 1964. Alcoa would own the building until 1973. Everything in town is connected.

My mind wanders.  So if the building's assessment went from 23 to 30 million, it is highly likely that the property tax bill on the property is going down.  If so it leads to a simple and unavoidable conclusion.  A lower tax bill ought to be capitalized into the value of the building.  In other words, a lower tax bill should push up the value of the building.  Detroit's public pension system is thus going to benefit from Allegheny County's assessment. 

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Tuesday, May 01, 2012

Peak Labor

So you may miss the big story in the latest labor force data being reported.  No equivocation necessary in that the data is showing the region's labor force is larger than ever in the past.  And I know the story is usually written in terms of local folks moving in and out of the workforce, but it really is much more a migration story.  Labor force participation rates are far less volatile than people think, certainly less volatile than regional migration flows.   Add in the fact that in general labor force participation rates are still declining nationally then for there to be an increasing labor supply locally you can do the division to inpute what must be the continuing migration story for Pittsburgh. 





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