Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Here we go again... same old song again

I really need to go hide. Tomorrow the census will put out the latest population numbers for the City of Pittsburgh. Population in the city will be down for sure, but by how much and how much compared to other municipalites in the county/region? I am sure there will be plenty of talking heads acting as if turkeys are falling from the sky.

Standing by for counterbattery.......


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why doesn't the City of Pittsburgh ever challenge these Census Estimates? The cities of Cincinnati and St. Louis... which have had similar losses of over half their peak populations... have successful challenged estimates and even "gained" population in the past couple years. (While they appear as gains... the cities may be continuing a downward population trend... just at higher numbers). My gut feeling is that the Census Bureau's methodology used in estimates makes Pittsburgh look quite unfavorable due to its preponderance of older housing stock... regardless of the quality and architectural intregrity of that stock...

Wednesday, June 27, 2007 9:18:00 AM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

Someone asked me that exact question recently. While the methodology used to produce intercesnal sub-county population estimates is not perfect, it’s a different question to believe it is biased one way versus the other. The very old housing stock in the city is problematic as well given the methodology’s reliance on building permits.

That being said. I think the estimates are consistent with tax receipt data. We also have good data on people moving out of Allegheny County and that trend is very consistent year over year. Couple that with new housing going up in many parts of the county outside of the city, people are moving into those developments as well. I would be fearful that a population challenge would peg the city at a lower number than being estimated. I don’t see any evidence that vacancy trends in the city have turned around. We are at the point where parts of the city can legitimately be labeled urban praries. Even where vacancy is not increasing, de-densification is continuing.

Honestly, if there is any slowing in the city’s population decline, part of it will be because they re-opened the Western Penitentiary recently. Those prisoners count and ought to be captured by the estimates. That and student population I think is trending up a bit. But resident household population? Where could it be growing?

I am told people don't get the turkey reference. anyone? I really must be getting old.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007 9:37:00 AM  
Blogger Jim Russell said...

I assume you mean the WKRP promotion.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007 10:43:00 AM  
Blogger Jonathan Potts said...

As God as my witness, I thought turkeys could fly.

Wednesday, June 27, 2007 11:23:00 AM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

That's it, although I was thinking of Les Nesman in the scene. He was all hysterical watching the turkeys fall.. "oh the
humanity...". It's what I feel some of the commentary was like over the last set of population estimates that came out.

thanks to youtube:

Wednesday, June 27, 2007 11:47:00 AM  

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