Sunday, August 26, 2007

Big Blue Blanket

Given that the election is now rapidly approaching, I'll try and make this the last city-related political post until after the election. I have put the county version of this map up in the past... but below is a city map showing the percentage of voters last November that were straight Democratic party voters.

I know some people get a little testy when I point out the odds a non-Democrat has in the fall, but if you want to argue the point... don't argue with me, argue with this map. If you think this pattern is all of a sudden going to change, you have have a pretty good reason for it beyond projecting. If someone pulls that D or R button it means they are not even considering a single candidate from any other party in any other race on the ballot. Can someone other than the nominated Democrat win in the fall? Sure they can, it has happened in the past. In fact I was once a pretty lonely voice expecting there to be a real race in the fall. But you have to have a candidate who comes with some strong base of support in the bluer areas or else the math speaks for itself. There is a lot of wisdom in humor and a far better way of explaining all this comes from the (irreverent) wizards over at the Carbolic Smoke Ball.



With that, here is a last way to think about the election now just 9 weeks away... it is only ~16 months until the parties endorse candidates for the next election cycle and a full 4 year term as mayor. 16 months is really nothing when you think about it. If we didn't have a race this fall, we would already be handicapping that race while potential candidates would have already begun gladhanding and raising money. Thus the biggest (only?) result of this off off-year mayoral election cycle has been to significantly shorten the pre-campaign for the subsequent election coming up soon.

7 Comments:

Blogger Bram Reichbaum said...

"Given that the election is now rapidly approaching, I'll try and make this the last city-related political post until after the election."

Land sakes, why? Doesn't it become increasingly critical to inform everybody on city issues as a city election approaches?

Sunday, August 26, 2007 9:34:00 PM  
Blogger Schultz said...

Bram - I agree about the importance but I don't think Chris wants his blog to be a forum for city politics. I do not think the outlook for DeSantis is as bleak as he some others in the blogosphere. I expect a lot of Dems to stay home on election day, and I expect all of the Pubs to be out in full force. That leaves the independents and the group that will decide the outcome of the election - the swing voting democrats whose numbers are increasing each week.

Here is the latest on the poll at my blog:

Luke Ravenstahl 10 (11%)

Mark DeSantis 67 (77%)

Other/Not voting 9 (10%)

Votes so far: 86
Days left to vote: 66

Monday, August 27, 2007 12:18:00 AM  
Blogger Jonathan Potts said...

From the PG, via Burgh Report:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07239/812342-35.stm

Monday, August 27, 2007 8:43:00 AM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

it is certainly true that there are enough forums for general dialogue on the race this fall. Best not here.

the turnout question will be interesting to look at when its all over with. Its not just the mayor's race, but lack of other big draw could depress turnout. So how turnout in the city compares to elsewhere in the county could be one thing.

Which way low turnout helps the candidates is a lot less clear. Low turnout could help a challenger if rank and file do not show up and the challengers supporters are sufficiently energized. Yet those core pary voters show up pretty much no matter what. How that all balances out?

as for that survey... the very definition of self-selection I would say.

Monday, August 27, 2007 1:58:00 PM  
Blogger Amos_thePokerCat said...

That map is interesting because it reinforces a previous post of yours on straight party voting. When you start out spotting your opponent 40%, you have a tough row to hoe. If DeSantis breaks 30% he will have set a high water mark for a Republican Mayoral candidate.

The map also points out another topic from the previous post. Blacks are a huge, but ignored voting block in PIT, bring in the "D" votes at 95%+.

From the map you can see obvious African-American communites in PIT like the Hill District, East S'liberty-Homewood-Wilkinsburg, Hazelwood, and parts of the Northside-Perrysville Ave.

Question: What communities are the 65%+ areas south of the river? Mt Lebo? ;-) What are the few communities below 20%? What is the average turn out percentage of registered voters?

Monday, August 27, 2007 4:11:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

Beltzhoover is the community just south of downtown and west of Mt. Oliver.

The lightest areas to the south are parts of Brookline. Probably a local Michael Diven effect right in there. Lots of personal support for him right where he is from. I am not sure it extrapolates beyond that.

I have pointed this out before.. but for more on voting patterns and race in Allegheny County:

http://www.briem.com/votingpatterns.pdf

Monday, August 27, 2007 7:09:00 PM  
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