Thursday, August 07, 2008

Back to Predictive Markets: Will there be a strike at the port authority?

One of my pseudo experiments some time back was what I called the "New Pittsburgh Stock Exchange" which was using the predictive markets at Inkingmarkets. I put in there questions about the opening date of the casino and some local political races. It had some interesting results.

So I thought I would try again. I have created another 'market', again using InklingMarkets. You can go to their site to learn more about the concept. But this time the question is:

Will there be a strike at the Port Authority of Allegheny County?

So you can create an account and start to 'bet' on this question or any of the other questions others have set up at this particular predictive markets site. Right now it starts at 50/50, not because I think that probability is even my guess, but you have to start somewhere. If you think there will be a strike you buy this 'contract' and if you don't think there will be a strike you can 'sell' it.

I have put in the fine print onto the site, but basically the market will close whenever there has been a full day of labor stoppage or if a contract is signed without any such stoppage or it will close on December 31, 2009. There could be lots of disputes over definitions, but I will be the judge and apply what I hope is a reasonable person standard if there are any issues... i.e. so no lawyers involved.

The big problem again is that this is all for fun. It's not real money and I can't even think of a way to offer up a nominal 'prize' for the winners since this particular market is just one of many they run and you are free to participate in all of them I think. Am open to suggestions on how to entice 'play'. The site does also allow for comments, it might be an interesting place to be a nexus of comments related to the strike, or potential thereof, but I am not sure that will be a big draw.

But we will see if this produces any valuable results. Cast off.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

I placed my bet. I like that the math test required to register. I assume this is to keep city council members from playing.

Thursday, August 07, 2008 10:54:00 AM  

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