Thursday, September 18, 2008

Election night could be really really long

If you take the current lay of the land on right now and assume every toss up state goes to whomever they are showing on top at this moment, by whatever margin it is showing (some are pretty slim) there are lots of options for a perfect electoral college tie. Right now it shows McCain 278, Obama 260 but with lots of toss up states.

but if all goes as they have with just a few differences you get exactly 269, 269. Some of those scenarios include what their map shows now except

Colorado goes D and not R.

Louisiana goes D and not R

Montana and Arkansas go D and not R

There are clearly lots and lots of others scenarios that get you to the same point, but those are just a few that were obvious or conceivable given the margins in those state. I'd have to get the Bayesian modelers set the supercomputers chomping what the probability of a literal tie is. Could the future of the US be determined by the by-district allocation of electors in Maine or Nebraska.

Time is ticking, but it is still a political eternity between now and November.


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