Tuesday, November 11, 2008

PA going blue... except....

As noted all around, despite the big Obama win in PA, it was not a win with the coattails it could have had at least in PA. Republican AG Corbett won, although it would have been pretty historic for a Democrat to win that office... and Tim Murphy was re-elected fairly easily for congress. There was the congressional seat that flipped up in NW PA where in PA-3 Phil English lost to Kathy Dahlkemper. But one real exception is the Pennsylvania senate that not only didn't shift toward Democrats but actually gained a Republican seat for a virtually absolute 30-20 advantage. This is the map of PA senate seats by party of incumbent come January.. (assuming the one deceased member is replaced by someone of the same party)

A factoid I just noticed on the presidential results... I am sure others have seen this, but the Pennsylvania county with the largest number of McCain votes over and above Obama votes: Westmoreland where McCain came in with 27,782 more votes than Obama. Just thought it noteworthy that it was the biggest margin in total votes for McCain by county. Not a big deal for the overall result of course. Philadelphia alone (just the city/county, not including the region there) had 461,008 more votes for Obama over and above what McCain received. You could throw out every other blue county in the state and Obama would still have won in a landslide with over a 150k vote margin.


Anonymous MH said...

Tim Murphy's opponent should have tried to muddle the issue by confusing the first vowel. Or is that too dirty for politics.

Tuesday, November 11, 2008 9:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like the NYT national map of counties that voted more Republican in 2008 vs. 2004. The more Republican swath runs through Appalachia and right up to Allegheny County's doorstep: Beaver, Washington, Fayette, Westmoreland, Armstrong and, I think, Lawrence, all went more Republican this year. Unfortunately, Murtha was right.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 9:17:00 AM  
Anonymous MH said...

All Murtha (and Obama with his 'bitter' comment) proved is that if you insult people, they'll be less likely to support you. Murtha didn't lose because he was able to buy-off enough constituents with public money.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 10:44:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sadly Murtha was right. One is not inherently racist for voting for a candidate who is not Obama. But these people are mostly Democrats and the economy is by far the #1 issue and healthcare is a major, major issue too. Democrats win these issues in general and most certainly a Democrat should win votes from Democrats on these issues and even more so against a Republican who whose policies run against their interests.

Yet these Democrats did not vote for the candidate whose policies they support.


Spare use the contrived fake outrage against Murtha.


Wednesday, November 12, 2008 10:52:00 AM  
Anonymous MH said...

Are you psychic or a pollster? Because I'd want to see some evidence before I agreed that the average white Westmoreland Dem was more racist than the average white Pittsburgh Dem. Or before I assumed that I knew the policies that voters supported. Not all Democrats have the same interests, not all interests are economic and most Westmoreland Democrats did vote for Obama.

I'm not outraged about Murtha for anything but the pork. He wasn't insulting me.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 11:10:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

McCain's performance and the massive "red shift" of Southwestern PA is extremely disturbing.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 11:40:00 AM  
Anonymous johnny g said...

(1) There is no "massive red shift" going on here. Chris fails to mention that the ratio before the election was 29-21. Woo-Hoo, the Republicans picked up one seat. The make-up of the Pa. Senate is more a function of the fact that the state Democratic party continues to run uncompetitive candidates and uses antiquated GOTV methods.

(2) As for the NYT map, it shows some (<5%) shift toward voting for McCain over Bush in 2004. Westmoreland, Butler, and Greene had already gone over to Republicans/Bush by 2004. And the McCain margin in Butler, Beaver and Washington--which did switch this year--was razor thin.

(3) The reality is that "change" doesn't sound like a good thing to folks in Appalachia. And, if your economy is based on energy and resources--hello, Appalachia--a "green" revolution doesn't sound like a good thing either. Democrats have to learn how to re-connect with Appalachia.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 12:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To echo earlier comments, these areas have been voting more conservatively for the last 15 years. West Virginia is a prime example of a traditionally Democratic state becoming more Republican. I think that this is more of a function of the democrats becoming more liberal/the nation becoming more conservative.

This had nothing to do with race in 2000 and 2004 as these counties voted more republican, but now it is all about race. Great. This is what alot of people are afraid of over the next 4 years: if you don't support Obama, you're a racist.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 3:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not all Dem interests are the same, but the number one issue bar far was the economy.

Nothing else comes close.

Healthcare was significant. Iraq was significant, but nothing comes close and all three issues there are clear differences between Democrats and Republicans and Obama and McCain.

One not need be psychic to grasp such basic facts.


Wednesday, November 12, 2008 4:01:00 PM  
Anonymous The Indians Are Coming! said...

Here's the thing about the NYT map. It shows that essentially the entire country went more Democratic except for the Bible Belt and SW PA. Say what you want about past voting performance, getting insulted, not being "green" ... the fact is, the rest of the country got it, but SW PA circled the wagons. Why? (Rhetorical question.)

Thursday, November 13, 2008 1:27:00 PM  
Anonymous dbr96a said...

According to the New York times map, many areas near Boston became more Republican in 2008 too. What a bunch of racist rednecks they are!


Friday, November 14, 2008 12:27:00 AM  
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