Monday, November 03, 2008

Real Estate/Foreclosures and the growth of Cleveburgh

Think the PNC acquisition of NatCity is big news in Pittsburgh-Cleveland relations? Looks like local Howard Hanna has bought into the Cleveland Real Estate industry in an ever bigger way.

Folks at thePlain Dealer are still desperately seeking a silver lining for them in the PNC/NatCity deal. They are having a hard time of it. Again, you really need to dig down into the comments as well as the article itself.

More than that going on with respect to Cleveland. Long ago, people would just laugh when I ever discussed Cleveburgh as a concept. Well, they still do when described that way. But the idea has caught on a bit more even though the industry trends are now shooting ahead of any policies at this point.

Brian O. comments on Pennsylvania's unique path in the foreclosure crisis. First real appreciation in the local press of just how different the Pennsylvania and Ohio paths has been in the whole foreclosure crisis thus far. Still at least a tad bit of disbelief in that looking toward the future. The idea that we are just be slow into the tsunami is pervasive and deep seated fear I know. Yet it's hard to really justify when you consider a number of things, not the least of which is that the trend in foreclosures here is downward. But more than that it gets to how to compare current foreclosure numbers these days with the past. So much has changed in how the mortgage market operates that you can't really infer too much from comparing foreclosure rates now with those in the past. Even if there was no nationwide subprime crisis at all, I think there are lots of reasons to think the baseline foreclosure rate would be higher than in the past. That and this fear of all the adjustable rates mortgages adjusting is real, but just not the same issue in a Pittsburgh context as it is in Cleveland no matter. Lots of worst hit markets have been so bad that the saturation of foreclosures can't be absorbed by the market. I was talking to someone who had a deal they were looking at because someone else paid asking price with cash for a local house. Anecdotal I know, but I bet that isn't happening in Cleveland anywhere these days.

Just one data point on this, who knows how representative it is.. but I see a PR from some firm that appears to specialize in house auctions. The headline is: Nearly 500 Foreclosed Homes Hit Auction Block in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Makes it sound like we are all in the same boat. But what are their numbers:

Philadelphia (8 homes);
Scranton, PA (14 homes);
Cincinnati (40 homes)
Dayton (49 homes);
Columbus (48 homes);
Harrisburg, PA(8 homes)
Marion, OH (9 homes);
Toledo (34 homes);
Pittsburgh (30homes)
Freemont/Sandusky, OH (8 homes);
Youngstown (26 homes)
Cleveland (167 homes)
Akron/Canton (43 homes)

Which by my count is Pennsylvania 60 and Ohio 424. Hmm..


Anonymous Anonymous said...

By population, Columbus and Cincinnati can't be that far off Pittsburgh. It looks like a NE Ohio problem.

Monday, November 03, 2008 3:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's an Ohio problem... the entire state has experienced a severe foreclosure crisis. However, Cleveland has been the epicenter... probably because it has one of the worst economies in the country while Cincy is slowly declining and Columbus is slowly growing.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008 8:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's good to see PCRG recognized in the Oneil commentary. CBOs across the country have been warning of poor lending practices in the neighborhods, and for the most part they've been dismissed.
Then, after all the loans go belly-up, CRA is blamed for the problem.

It's good to see a strong advocacy group in Pittsburgh, and that they were heard by state and bank leadership.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008 9:15:00 AM  

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