Friday, December 05, 2008

altmire hart retrospective

So here is a map. There was a time when the thought was that the rematch of former Congresswoman Melissa Hart against current Congressman Jason Altmire would be at least close enough to watch closely. What was clear by election day was that it would have been surprising for Altmire to not win re-election. Word on the street that even the Republican national committee pulled some its money supporting Hart near the end as prospects looked bleak.

In the past I put up a map of the results from the first Hart-Altmire race. No reason to repeat that in itself so I wondered where Altmire gained on Hart. Altmire won 56-44 which was a decent improvement from the 52-48 results just 2 yeares earlier. Here is a map of the the differences between the 2008 race compared to 2006. Honestly I don't see much pattern in it, which would just mean Atmire gained a bit of ground across several groups. An incumbency bump, Obama coat-tails, some intra-regional migration artifacts, or something else? I dunno.

Change in Election Returns, 2006 vs. 2009. PA 4th Congressional District


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Obama lost Altmire's district by double digits. No "Obama bump" here. If anything Obama was a drag on Altmire.

Saturday, December 06, 2008 1:26:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

That misses the point I think. Did Obama do better or worse than Bush in the district? I have not looked at the numbers on that, but there could be an Obama bump even if Obama lost the district.

Wednesday, December 10, 2008 9:34:00 PM  

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