Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Let's parse

These are the results for each candidate by City Council district FWIW. Not quite what I expected, but close. Anyone else notice the single biggest surprise? Skip that for a moment. The 2nd most interesting thing is that I know everyone is going to be talking about the Rudiak win. Note how the district she just won (D4) is also the district that a) had the single highest % for Ravenstahl and b) lowest % for Robinson. Chomp on that some.





Blogger EdHeath said...

The Post-Gazette has things split out on a map by city wards. Pat Dowd lost the 11th Ward, which includes Highland Park and parts of East Liberty, Garfield, Morningside and Larimer, by only one percentage point to Ravenstahl. But he lost Stanton Heights, Morningside and Lawrenceville by bigger numbers (his own district).

I think if Pat Dowd had announced a month earlier, maybe he would have done better. That's provided he led off the campaign with one of those telephone town halls, listened to what people were saying then, had more people concentrate on the door knocking (and had them put their experiences in a database, which someone paid attention to and used to fine tune the campaign), maybe he could have turned another 16%. Which would have been the ball game.

By the way, I believe I could have said almost the exact same thing about Mark DeSantis, except that DeSantis would have needed roughly 20% because he didn’t have a Carmen Robinson in the race. If Dok Harris is to make a credible showing, he will need to start knocking on doors now. Given a choice between spending ten minutes with Luke Ravenstahl or ten minutes with the son of one of the most popular and famous Steelers (if not the most popular and famous), I think any Pittsburgher who is not in the ACDC would say “Go Steelers”. And Dok Harris would gain invaluable information.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 8:31:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So what was the biggest surprise? (I'm heading out the door and don't have time to figure it out :))

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 9:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Rachel C. said...

this is a great graph Chris. Plus it's the only report on the internet that shows what Natalia really accomplished in her district.

Her campaign was phenomenal.

And btw, no disrespect to Bill Peduto, but the Post-Gazette got it wrong-- he is not the single reason that she raised 55k+.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 10:26:00 AM  
Blogger Political Organizing said...

I would also like to give a shoutout to Daniel Lavelle's victory in D6. I was proud to have been a part of such an upset of a rubber-stamp politician. Kudos to changing the face of Pgh City Council!

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 10:28:00 AM  
Blogger Schultz said...

Chris - if you've ever stepped foot in District 4 it should be no surprise that only a small percentage of voters there would vote for either an African American or an East End Liberal. Look at how Peduto performed there in 2005. Also note how that district was one of the if not the weakest district for Obama in the 2008 primary. This is not a shocker.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 4:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe the statistics show that, about District 4, however, Rudiak did a lot of door knocking in almost all of the neighborhoods she will represent. I didn't see any of the Mayoral candidates over here in the South Hills, so I guess the incumbent wins.

I think given more time and fortunate and unfortunate time stoppers during the time they had (superbowl, & the tragic deaths of police officers) both Dowd and Robinson would have had a better showing. Just my thoughts.

Thursday, May 21, 2009 12:56:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

All D4 candidates door knocked tons. That's how you do it in D4.

Thursday, May 21, 2009 2:47:00 AM  

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