Wednesday, May 20, 2009

quick and dirty version

Quick and dirty version. Will probably redo these later:

Percentage Dowd

Percentage Robinson


Anonymous MH said...

It looks to me that you could reproduce the Dowd map with a simple equation.

Dowd = x*average house price.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 10:41:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

14th Ward... will you ever win?

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 12:32:00 PM  
Anonymous MH said...

No, we won't. Ward 14 and Ward 7 are political dead-ends that exist to pay the taxes that let the machine by votes.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 1:08:00 PM  
Anonymous MH said...

I forgot the 'u'. Should be 'buy votes.'

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 1:15:00 PM  
Blogger Jerry said...

MH, rarely does an equation make me laugh out loud. Nicely done. I would not be surprised if Chris is working out some overlay to prove or disprove your formula.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 8:37:00 PM  
Anonymous MH said...

To check that, you'd need to find house price or some socio-economic data down to the precinct level. I said house price because that is at least theoretically available from the county.

That isn't my area of research, but I'm guessing that to pull a reasonable sample of house prices at the precinct level you'd need a 1/2 time student for a semester. If there was a way to cross-walk the census data with the precinct, it might be easier. I'm not familiar with using the census, but in my experience, nothing is that convenient.

It would probably be cheaper to do an exit poll.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 9:28:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

%D = 0.000233*(Median Sales Price) + 1.1

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 10:28:00 PM  
Anonymous MH said...

Where'd you get that and does it come with an R^2?

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 10:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, it's pretty obvious that the city's tax base voted for Dowd when looking at the map... that lone Dowd outpost in the North Side? Resaca Place and neighboring streets... the gentrified nugget of the Mexican War Streets. In the south? The homes with the million dollar views along Grandview and Bailey. And then of course... the cluster of East End wealth stretching from North Oakland through Shadyside, Point Breeze, Squirrel Hill, Regent Square... and a little bit into Friendship and "East" Bloomfield. And then of course the Highland Park outpost.

It seems like citywide elections are dominated by "city employee" neighborhoods like the South Hills, Stanton Heights, Lincoln Place, Ravenstahl's neighborhood (Summer Hill) and suburbanesque portions of the West End.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 10:52:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

Joke… joke. Well, honestly more an educated guess.

Honestly, it would take a few hours to probably come up with a halfway decent model for the results. Assessed value by precinct could be generated easily enough and I have a geocorr of census tracts to precincts that works well enough. I think you would want to use a couple more variables: Income, %Black and a set of dummy variable for the city council districts I bet I could get a pretty decent R^2.

Thursday, May 21, 2009 1:11:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Funny thing about the 14th Ward. The presidents of city and county council live there. So does Masloff and so did O'Connor and, I believe, Caligiuri (or was he Bloomfield--Dowd's district--or Greenfield?). And Pete Flaherty was from Shadyside. So four of the past six mayors were from the East End.

Paying taxes AND leading the city. Doesn't get any better.

Thursday, May 21, 2009 10:46:00 AM  
Anonymous MH said...

I thought Shields was in Greenfield, most of which is not in the 14th Ward.

Anyway, very convincing equation.

Thursday, May 21, 2009 2:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shields lives in 14 practically in Allderdice's back yard. Caliguiri lived in 14. O'Connor went to church in Greenfield but lived just off Murray Ave in Squirrel Hill. In large part Dowd votes in 14 were anti-Luke votes - if someone had thought about it they could have run a pretty decent write in campaign in the East End. Just checking but it seemed to me that Dowd lost in his own city council district - doesn't bode well for his political future.

Thursday, May 21, 2009 6:53:00 PM  

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