Friday, June 05, 2009

Up and down addendum: real estate.

Headline today: RealSTATS: Home sales in Pittsburgh region drop 20 percent

OK, but in that article it also says:

"The region's median price for the month of April was up 3.4 percent, however..."

That says up. It really does. OK. Sales low. Bad for some, especially agents. But increasing prices despite continuing record declines elsewhere. Some say there is even more bad news in real estate yet to come. But seriously, how many metro regions are seeing year over year real estate value increases right now. Every single region tracked by Case Shiller is down year over year. Some by only a little over 5%, but some down as much as 30%. Phoenix was brought up in comments on the previous post. Phoenix real estate values down 53% from their peak just a couple years ago. Imagine having just bought a moderate valued McMansion and seeing it depreciate like that.

Lots of things impacting sales. Beyond the sheer turmoil in the credit markets between this time last year and now, I am just betting you have the problem of folks unable to sell homes elsewhere hindering their ability to buy places here just in the normal course of migration each year. It would be a great study to look into that. All we really know thus far is that migration rates seem to be lower as the result of the recession.


Anonymous MH said...

It is clearly relatively good news, but as I keep reading on Calculated Risk, the Case Shiller is a much better measure than the median price as it uses repeated sales while the median shifts depending on the mix of houses sold. If for some reason (like no more sub-prime mortgages), the bottom of the market stopped moving, you could get an increase in median price in a market that is actually declining. At least that's part of what I'm getting ready to say if I have to go to a reassessment hearing.

Friday, June 05, 2009 8:07:00 PM  

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