Friday, September 04, 2009

Poor Pension Prognosticating in the Past

Here is all I will add to the news (PG and Trib versions) that the city has provided with the state with projections on how they will have a solvent pension system in the future.

While I know this is mostly unreadable actuary-speak, here is the city's quite detailed projection from the 1990's on how just the earlier and smaller pension bond would solve all the city's pension problems.  You can skip the detail, the conclusion is that all will be well.  But lots of nice tables and graphs to make you feel good along the way in accepting that. 

I wonder if the projections provided to the state look like this in either their conclusion or their detail?  I am also curious. The Trib version makes clear that the city sent the state information from January 1, 2007.  So data almost 3 years old now.  They must be working on their actuary report reflecting data as of January 1, 2009. You would think that would be much more relevant.  As I have pointed out, the last two years have seen some expenditure trends that are diverging from the past and will have a real impact on updated liability calculations.  So anything based on 3 year old data could be very obsolete right out of the gate.What is the point with that?  Not much mention of this past attempt to right the pension ship and how it relates to current plans for same.

But check out the projections from a decade ago.  I would love to compare that to the projections the city prepared for the state this week. .


Blogger Bram Reichbaum said...

Looking at today's news, it could be HB 1828's backers believe that that any differences caused by any actuarial discrepancies would not mean so much in the context of a statewide solution. Or that may be not so much their opinion as their position. Perhaps that is why they seem to be pausing to consider our entreaties; getting boggged down in cold hard economic minutia is really not something that advances their movement.

Friday, September 04, 2009 11:18:00 AM  

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