Thursday, November 12, 2009

displacement and dice II

Here is the actual report from last month out of the Indiana state government looking at the impact of new casinos on their revenues.  Estimates of the Fiscal Impacts from Out-of-State Casino Competition and Movement of Casino Licenses in Indiana.  The whole idea of displacement when it comes to casino revenues is something Atlantic City is learning the hard way.  It's not like it is a topic that has not been studied or anything.

Not that current casino revenues are building much confidence here in town, but they do seem to be in a range for now.  

Which all inspired a picture. This was intended to be a look at what the potential impact of future casino openings might be on revenues here.  In the graphic below all the circles are 100 mile radii around Pittsburgh and around the potential locations of casinos that may be yet to come.Not included are other already operating casinos which are nearby.   The red is 100 miles around Pittsburgh.  The orange is Lawrence County which until its prospective owner filed for bankruptcy next week was slated to get a casino into operation.   The pink circles are for the locations that are designated to get casinos with both slots and table games per the Ohio referendum that just passed.  So just to give some visual perspective on all that... you get this graphic for what it's worth:

Of course it's not that simple.  Nothing concrete about 100 miles versus 50 or 200, but it is certainly within a range that the professional casino industry analysts use when looking at this type of thing.  If most patrons come from closer it's less of a issue, but if the catchment area is even 150 miles the intersection of those footprints is significantly larger than shown here... at 200 miles even more so.  There are second order effects as well I suspect.  The other nearby casinos I didn't show on this graphic will also be hit by the same competition and will ramp up their own efforts to maintain reveneus... so pressures will compound for local enterprises.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting graphic- I'm sure it would get pretty crowded if you added the casinos in Pittsburgh, Erie, Washington County, WV and western NY. Plus I'm sure that the 100 mile circle from the casino in Niagara Falls Canada would come into the picture as well. In a very short time its becoming a very crowded market.

Thursday, November 12, 2009 9:59:00 AM  
Blogger EdHeath said...

It seems to me that the Mountaineer casino is pretty heavily advertised around here, although perhaps I just overuse their particular choice of advertising channels (radio while in my car, billboard on Route 28). As Anonymouse said, it is becoming a crowded market.

What is the deal with table games in Pennsylvania? The Governor is threatening veto because we are not going to tax the games heavily enough? At least one department at Pitt is saying it can not make hiring decisions because Pitt has not made a budget because the State Legislature has not told Pitt how much money it is getting because the table games thing has not passed because the Legislature is dithering because the Governor is threatening veto. Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practise to create and pass legislation ...

Thursday, November 12, 2009 11:01:00 AM  
Anonymous MH said...

On plus side of legislation, more charges will be files against legislators today.

Thursday, November 12, 2009 11:14:00 AM  
Anonymous Amish Monkey said...

What happens in Volant stays in Volant.

Friday, November 13, 2009 10:15:00 AM  

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