Tuesday, November 03, 2009

foolish numbers

It's a fool game to try and peg numbers on the Mayor's race this cycle... 3 candidates vice 2 and low turnout make the exact number a matter for chaos theory to determine if anything....   but as my Russian teacher used to tell me... if you want to be a mushroom, jump into the basket* so why not be a fool.   Polls are still open so this still counts as a prediction:  62-21-17.   The order is even less meaningful to peg and no matter how it turns out I wouldn't overinterpret it as some will be wont to do.  But if one had to I pick it's R-H-A respectively.

I still swear there is an academic paper in how the straight ticket numbers look in the end.  It is about as close to a natural experiment as you can get comparing 2007 to today. Just 2 years ago voting for the R ticket gave your vote to Desantis and this time around it will give you Desantis' opponent.  So it will be a big datapoint as to whether people are paying attention if nothing else.  The news blurbs thus far (see CP and PG for examples) indicate there are folks pulling the R level pushing the R button without realizing it means you wind up voting for the Democratic incumbent.  And then there is this curious issue of who will vote for the Dok Harris ticket vice voting for Harris individually. 

Looks like low turnout across the state FWIW.  Statewide prognosticating is beyond me, but I was thinking of something.  If really low turnout across the state I bet it it helps Panella for supreme court.  There are these semi-active races mayoral races in Pittsburgh and Harrisburg and at least for controller in Philadelphia (yeah, I know... it's a stretch.. but it's somethign)..  So any bump in turnout in those areas will give some help to Panella over Melvin, but who knows how that turns out. 

* No, I really never figured out what that meant either.. but sounds good for my context.


Blogger Bram Reichbaum said...

You know, you're right. With the touchscreens, I guess you can't surreptitiously check at a gland who you will be voting for if you pull a straight ticket lever, so I imagine Luke will rack up a ton of votes that way. It makes me want to change my predictions, but obviously that's impossible.

Tuesday, November 03, 2009 6:52:00 PM  
Blogger Bram Reichbaum said...

Or check at a "glance". Unlike bees we don't vote by releasing hormones.

Tuesday, November 03, 2009 6:53:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

I wouldn't be so sure of that last sentence there Bram.

Tuesday, November 03, 2009 7:23:00 PM  
Blogger n'at said...

48-28-24; R-A-H.

I'm all hopped up on "the men who stare at goats." So what will be a key victory for das Ich is that R will receive less than 50% of the votes, for less than 30% voter turnout...

Although, where ever which way we may find the pit check at the end of the shift, Peduto will continue to pwn.

Tuesday, November 03, 2009 7:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I thought it was interesting that the top of the first column on the touch screen was headed "straight ticket", with the choices being Republican, Democrat, FRANCO DOK HARRIS (my emphasis), and two other parties, Independent and Libertarian, I believe. I wonder how many people took a quick glance at that, thought it was the mayoral ticket, and clicked on Harris. Very clever of Harris to register as his own party.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009 9:02:00 AM  
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