misc: secret list and recession demographics
I've been watching how recession impacts could change population trends and possibly impact congressional reapportionment. I think Pennsylvania is pretty solidly in a range to lose a congressional seat as has been predicted, but in an extreme case might not. But there is a report out from Brookings and one of the things it is saying is that there are some very real changes in the population trends impacting other states. First report I have seen really saying that. Here is the key paragraph in an AP story running recently:
Texas previously had stood to gain four House seats and Arizona two seats, based on earlier population trends of torrid Sunbelt growth during the housing boom. But with U.S. mobility now at a 60-year low, Texas may add just three seats and Arizona one. Missouri and Minnesota could avoid losing seats and Ohio may drop one seat instead of two. New York, which earlier had been projected to lose two seats, is now on track to lose oneSo no mention of Pennsylvania... but they are saying both New York and Ohio might lose one less seat than expected until recently. I think the recession started too late in the decade to really have enough impact by the spring to have any hope of saving Pennsylvania's antitcipated loss. Not completely inconceivable that we might be saved the loss, but the recession population/migration impacts will have to be a lot sharper than expected... but nationally the recession is longer and deeper than many have expected as well.