Thursday, December 10, 2009

misc: secret list and recession demographics

wow... someone didn't get the memo.  I don't find us on this list anywhere. (shh.  Philly and Cleveland are)   Most here have heard my arugument on how age demographics skews metrics like that against us.  I am working on something that may again make that point.  For later though. 


I've been watching how recession impacts could change population trends and possibly impact congressional reapportionment.  I think Pennsylvania is pretty solidly in a range to lose a congressional seat as has been predicted, but in an extreme case might not.   But there is a report out from Brookings and one of the things it is saying is that there are some very real changes in the population trends impacting other states. First report I have seen really saying that.  Here is the key paragraph in an AP story running recently:
Texas previously had stood to gain four House seats and Arizona two seats, based on earlier population trends of torrid Sunbelt growth during the housing boom. But with U.S. mobility now at a 60-year low, Texas may add just three seats and Arizona one. Missouri and Minnesota could avoid losing seats and Ohio may drop one seat instead of two. New York, which earlier had been projected to lose two seats, is now on track to lose one
So no mention of Pennsylvania... but they are saying both New York and Ohio might lose one less seat than expected until recently.   I think the recession started too late in the decade to really have enough impact by the spring to have any hope of saving Pennsylvania's antitcipated loss.  Not completely inconceivable that we might be saved the loss, but the recession population/migration impacts will have to be a lot sharper than expected... but nationally the recession is longer and deeper than many have expected as well. 


Blogger EdHeath said...

Pittsburgh does not show up on Travel and Leisure's list of America's favorite cities, therefore we can not be ranked in terms of smartness (apparently). Really, for per capita smaretness in a distinct metropolitan boundary, I might nominate somewhere like Berkeley. Which is to say it is likely possible to game the rules of any silly list.

Thursday, December 10, 2009 12:56:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pittsburgh isn't one of the 50 largest cities in the country, so it's a bit naive to expect to see it on a list of 30 cities.

In terms of "smartest cities", rankings, the best one is probably:
which of course has a strong skew towards cities of just over 50k people but you can just ignore those.

89. Pittsburgh, PA 1.5%

Where I think that number is based around the 2000 census, pgh will probably be even better in 2010 (as old people die off; my guess would be 1.8%, which should be good for the upper 60s).

Thursday, December 10, 2009 1:54:00 PM  

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