Wednesday, December 09, 2009

Only Pittsburgh

They aren't supposed to beat me to this kind of stuff... alas the folks paying the PG to see their PG+ may have seen this already... but there is a great map going with a story on how Moody's predicts and I quote:
"one market -- Pittsburgh -- is expected to turn positive in 2010."

They aren't kidding with that only Pittsburgh line either.  Look at their map!  Think there is a correlation to the failed banks graphic I mentioned the other day?

You can't gloat over any of that in the least.  If you read the table in that story and scoll to the bottom.. The predictions are for 30% price declines in most Florida real estate markets yet to come in 2010. 


Anonymous Anonymous said...

These "price predictions" seem logically inconsistent. The most glaring example is

56 San Francisco, CA 510,210 -7.97% 14.30%

So SF is projected to have house prices fall 8% in 2010, but then go up 14% in 2011? This just doesn't seem like something that will happen --- it doesn't take a lot of economic reasoning to move that price bump forward a year.

Wednesday, December 09, 2009 1:32:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with the first poster. Some California markets are showing double-digit increases in 2011 in the article. I find those 2011 forecasts to be suspect.

Wednesday, December 09, 2009 3:40:00 PM  
Anonymous John Morris said...

Housing Prices are not like stocks. No two houses or areas are alike so it's pretty hard to get a handle on.

From what I can tell, most of the areas in California showing strength were the areas hardest hit, some of which had seen an 80% drop in price which drew in bargain hunters in the low price range.

Outside of that, the overhang in the higher priced areas nearer the coast and in high end homes is huge.

These markets still are likely to fall a lot further and are filled with potential mortgage walkaways. Tons of people have held homes off the market hoping for a recovery, as have the banks and as they give up and throw in the towel there will likely be further drops.

Also ominous, is that a lot of recent sales have also been to shaky high risk credits who put little or no money down.

The FHA is a disaster.

Saturday, December 12, 2009 6:59:00 AM  
Anonymous John Morris said...

Also, I think listening to experts who nver predicted the housing bust, and denied it as it happened is stupid. Chances are they still don't have a grip on things and as David Einhorn has pointed out, Moodys has a strong incentive to paint an AAA on anything they can.

Saturday, December 12, 2009 7:05:00 AM  
Anonymous John Morris said...

I trust David Einhorn. I don't trust Moody's at all.

Saturday, December 12, 2009 7:11:00 AM  
Blogger John Morris said...

"I agree with the first poster. Some California markets are showing double-digit increases in 2011 in the article. I find those 2011 forecasts to be suspect."

No, the article is very logical.

Th emain difference in the areas where prices are moving up is that there is not a big overhanging inventory of sellers.

In the higher end areas there are still lots of shadow inventory of houses people want to sell, potential shor sales, walk aways, and looming bank forclosures.

Also, the eight thousand dollar credit made a substantial impact on inspiring low end sales. Eight thousand won't save a half million dollar house.

Saturday, December 12, 2009 7:32:00 AM  
Anonymous John Morris said...

Here's Jim The Realtor with some of the dynamics of higher end properties in Southern California.

Monday, December 14, 2009 12:08:00 PM  

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