Pittsburgh Bound
Gotta be short for now, but big news in wonk world. Census data just released shows the first net positive migration into the Pittsburgh region since forever. (to clarify, the first positive net domestic migration in years. If you add internatioanl immigration and domestic migration together it was positive last year as well. Internatioanl immigration, including its measurement, is a topic almost unto itself).
This is just net migration from elsewhere within the nation. There was one year around 1990-1991 the census estimates recorded net domestic migration into the region, but it was under 1,000 folks. Other than that one year you really have to go back much of a century to find a period when that has been true. Ponder that. Here is the graph of data just released:
This is just net migration from elsewhere within the nation. There was one year around 1990-1991 the census estimates recorded net domestic migration into the region, but it was under 1,000 folks. Other than that one year you really have to go back much of a century to find a period when that has been true. Ponder that. Here is the graph of data just released:
More later for sure. Gotta run. But it should be a big story. I don't have precise enough data to say this for sure.... but it's possible its the highest net in migration count since WWII. Net domestic migration has been mostly negative for the region since argubaly the 1920's.
18 Comments:
WHOA! DUUUDE!
I wonder how much of this is in-migration and how much of it is lack of out-migration. Is it a story of people moving to Pittsburgh, or people not moving away?
i knew it. My shepherding of wayward travelers to their destinations has steadily increase these past 2-3 years.
The developers of every mixed-use retail/residential project in the region have been paying people to move to the area to shop at their stores.
n'at: That would only show-up in the figures if you let them out of your basement.
MH, I think Rick Sebak died a little from that remark. Plus they're all accounted for in the 2010 census - plenty of space on the form. ;)
On city-data.com, there's been a steady stream of topics from people who have been planning to move to Pittsburgh from elsewhere, so maybe there are more people moving to the region than before. It's probably both an increase in migration to Pittsburgh and a decrease in migration from.
I think Rick Sebak died a little from that remark.
The guy who makes the zombie movies?
Which makes me wonder if somebody should check if the increased migration is for the whole region or just Monroeville.
I think Rick Sebak died a little from that remark.
The guy who makes the zombie movies?
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I really hope, MH, that you're being tongue-in-cheek, or else Rick Sebak just died a little more.
The Pittsburgh MSA.
I'm not an anti-regionalist, but the MSA is a little broad for my taste. I'll be more encouraged when I see those numbers for Allegheny County or the 32? CONNECT municipalities.
Still ... Hooray!
you know... the county story in these numbers may be bigger than the regional story. The county gets doubly whacked by both the migration from the region,but also movement of people within the region as folks move to Butler/Wash/Westmorland/etc.
Yet it looks to me that Allegheny county is showing a positive net inmigration which really would be the first time that has happened in a long long time. The 1991 period which saw a brief period of inmigration for the region was nonetheless showing net-outmigration from Allegheny County. I really can't tell how far back you would have to go to measure positive domestic migration for the county.
As for the city and neighborhing munis... ceneus estimates for those will be out later in the year, but those numbers are awfully iffy. There are truly estimates modeled almost entirely from counts of housing starts and demolitions.
I think the PG's Early Returns messed-up trying to link to this. Or, they read the comments and decided that a Huffington Post article on Chicago was a better fit.
Sebak makes zombie movies. Too funny.
I think it was George Romero who made the documentary: Things That Aren't There Anymore ... And Then Came Back!
Load up the census form with "zombie" Pittsburghers, make our numbers go up. Wish I'd thought of that before I sent it in.
Could Orthodox Jews be accounting for the uptick? Two families of about 10 people each moved onto my block recently, and a neighbor reports that more are coming.
PITTSBURGH MSA POPULATION BREAKDOWN BY COUNTY
Allegheny County
2008 population: 1,218,227
2009 population: 1,218,494
Change year/year: +267
Armstrong County
2008 population: 68,449
2009 population: 67,851
Change year/year: -598
Beaver County
2008 population: 172,396
2009 population: 171,673
Change year/year: -723
Butler County
2008 population: 183,663
2009 population: 184,694
Change year/year: +1,031
Fayette County
2008 population: 143,289
2009 population: 142,605
Change year/year: -684
Washington County
2008 population: 206,740
2009 population: 207,389
Change year/year: +649
Westmoreland County
2008 population: 362,627
2009 population: 362,251
Change year/year: -376
Pittsburgh MSA
2008 population: 2,355,391
2009 population: 2,354,957
Change year/year: -434
As I suspected, population gains in Allegheny, Butler and Washington Counties were wiped out by population losses in Armstrong, Beaver, Fayette and Westmoreland Counties. The good news is, the core of the metro area is relatively healthy.
To put these in percentage terms
Allegheny County: +.022%
Butler County: + .561%
Washington County: + .314%
Assuming each year the population of Allegheny County is 1.00022 times the population of the previous year, it will only take until 2239 before we make-up the people we've lost since 2000 (per Wiki: 1,281,666). And only until 2430 before we hit the 1990 figure.
You gotta start somewhere.
If I cared more, I could look-up the figures for previous years and see what you get if you assume the rate of change keeps increasing at the same rate. I don't know enough about how they estimate the population between censuses (censi?). But, I wonder if .00022 is different from 0. Could all of the increase be in Butler and Washington?
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