Wednesday, May 19, 2010

darn data delayed?

It's strange, but for some reason the county still has not posted the detailed election returns. They usually have the detailed elections returns data posted by midnight at least, but still nothing in the AM?? No data = no maps, sorry.

So some odds and ends while we're waiting.......

Lost a bit behind the other headlines.  In the Lt. governor races plurality rules: Looks to me like Saidel lost to H. Scott Conklin on the Democratic side, but the Inky says the margin requires a recount, and Jim Cawley won on the Republican side.  I have no idea who either are for the record.  Metcalfe won the Republican primary within Allegheny county with over 29%.

What does a recount mean for an electronic voting machine btw?

Saidel got nearly 70% of the vote in Philadelphia the news reports say.  But just didn't show up out here.  He got just about a third (in a 3 way race) here in Allegheny County which is the 2nd biggest pot of Democratic voters.  You would think the endorsement would impact a race like that somehow?  Must be a statistical test to see if that result is meaningfully different from folks just voting randomly among the 3 candidates..  I thought he would do well here; kind of strange he didn't do better at least within Allegheny County.  Wonk vote goes down in flames it seems, but I don't think he had much organization out here. I  might even have put up a sign.

I guess this list isn't getting any longer. See the compilation rating all of Arlen Specter's opponents over the years.  Long list.

Potter pointed out there was a nascent write in campaign for Dok Harris in the 4th congressional district.  Looks like over a thousand write-in votes (within the Allegheny County returns alone) in that race, or just about 4.5% which actually is a pretty high % as these things go.  Now whether the write in votes were for Harris or Snoopy we don't know.

Speaking of strange results. Hoeffel got all of 3.9% within Allegheny county??  I think any name on the ballot would get at more than that. I'm serious, see if there is a candidate with their name on the ballot in any race that did worse.  That may come in below the fat fingers minimum. I will be curious if the data can give any explanation for how Sestak was able to garner votes within the county that didn't buy anything at all for Hoeffel. But with numbers that low...  effectively zero..... there isn't going to be much to correlate the results against. In fact that is a smaller % than the write in % against Altmire which as Potter explains mostly came from a day old write-in campaign.  

Anyone spot anything else of note in the minutia?


Blogger n'at said...

I believe Randall Munroe has a old comic depicting the modern recounting process: two IT guys wielding cardboard swords advancing on each other from rolling desk chairs - killing time while their code is compiling.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010 8:40:00 AM  

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