Friday, May 21, 2010

jobs uber alles yinz

OK... the news headline is: Pa. adds 34,000 jobs; jobless rate flat at 9%

The actual state PR can be a bit booster-ish for me, but nontheless worth noting: PA Jobs Rise by 34,000; Largest One Month Job Gain Since 1996

Skipping a lot of caveats... seasonality, sampling error, the uber cold winter and anomalous recession impacts to start with, but looking as apples to apples as I can......  I think of that statewide +34K jobs, more than half (+17.8K is what I am seeing) is here in the Pittsburgh region.  Let's just put it this way, the Pittsburgh MSA is not half of the state by any measure.  (see comments)  Also, the data suggests that for the region the year over year job loss was shrunk to the smallest since the last months of 2008. So draw your own conclusions.   (that is still generally the case though...  NSA data that it is, but is fair enough for year over year comparisons)

More later... gotta run.


'll add this just becasue I am fascinated by the near-symmetry of the rebound.  World is usually a lot chunkier than that.  This is the time series for year over year employment change in the Pittsburgh MSA per the non-seasonally adjusted count of nonfarm wage and salary emloyment to be precise.  But check it out:

I'll look more into this later, but just as the state press release touts how far back you have to go to find such a big month over month job increase. Month over month is awfully variable, let alone seasonal, but I don't see a month over month jobs increase bigger than what the region is showing going back more like 30 years at least. But don't take that to the bank. Need to confirm that with data still to come. So we will see.


Anonymous BrianTH said...

I believe the NSA gain in PA was more like 82K, so a 18K NSA gain in Pittsburgh is about right.

In fact I have PA overall at a 1.49% increase (NSA MoM), Pittsburgh per those numbers at 1.62%. Still a little more than our fair share, but not outlandishly so.

That said, still pretty good news.

Friday, May 21, 2010 3:28:00 PM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

Follow up: I looked up SA (SMS42383000000000001 if you are curious). That gives you 7.3K for Pittsburgh (SA MoM).

Again, MoM percentages (now SA):

Pittsburgh: +0.66%
PA: +0.61%

Still pretty impressive for one month.

Friday, May 21, 2010 3:38:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

yeah... that's right I think for the most part as I should have realized. I forgot the state BLS summary page is reporting SA while the MSA page is reporting NSA. So a good month, but not any extra credit for us. Always know what data you are looking at is a good lesson always.

Friday, May 21, 2010 3:59:00 PM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

Happens to all of us--I've gotten in the habit of always double-checking SA/NSA because I am often assuming the wrong way.

Interesting addition, by the way. Makes me wonder where that graph is heading next--almost no one thinks this is going to be a V-shaped recovery on a national basis, but I have a feeling that relatively slow recovery may be the result of combining a lot of local Vs with local Ls. Which in turn makes me wonder how long we here in Pittsburgh/Pennsylvania can keep this up. And given the ongoing growth of the labor force, basically keeping pace with the new jobs, maybe it could last a while.

Friday, May 21, 2010 5:29:00 PM  
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