Tuesday, July 20, 2010

market fundamentals

Platts has this of interest to those following Marcellus developments (or who have natural gas heating):  US natural gas prices to hover below $5 through 2015: Bentek.  The money quote is that prices in natural gas markets will remain low "as the result of a long-term shift in market fundamentals".  The fundamental shift being mostly the new shale gas developments here and elsewhere. I'm pretty sure that $4/MMBtu is below the low end of projections (page 20 for example) the major players have been planning on.  Which all counterintuitively may or may not hurt local production.  Low prices will most hit the relatively high cost producers.  Not inconceivable that the low cost producers wind up with bigger market share in shifts like this. 


On a completely different topic... most know that the Pirates are flirting with Baltimore for the worst record in baseball these days.  The Christian Science Monitor's Sports Economist has someone to blame: An economist’s tribute to George Steinbrenner.   How much worse could the Pirates be this year?  In 1952 they were 42-112 and 54.5 GAMES OUT OF FIRST PLACE.

But hey... 8 years later it was the World Series.  So we are looking forward to 2018?  or a metaphysical question: will there ever be a World Series victory at PNC park?


Anonymous BrianTH said...

As I understand the Bentek prediction, it is specifically a prediction that increasing volumes of lower-cost shale gas will serve as a price constraint, not that there will be some sort of demand shortfall. And meanwhile, the EPA has been coming forward with air regulations that may lead to a lot of older, dirtier, coal plants being shut down . . .

Anyway, as usual, I hope PA state legislators take into account the possibility of a low-price/low-margin/high-volume scenario when determining the details of the severance tax.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010 11:41:00 AM  
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Monday, July 13, 2015 2:57:00 AM  

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