Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Down Down Down Down..... Up?

Here is some good news from some employment data just out for June.   I'll update my graph of year over year change in total nonfarm jobs in the Pittsburgh region.  What do you see with the June data?

So the first increase by this measure in 20 months... Largest increase since May 2008.  Boom times? No.  But you gotta start somewhere.


Anonymous BrianTH said...

Lots of ways of looking at these numbers, but one is that we are now down to a 28.2K loss from the recent June peak two years ago, which means we are sorta back to where we were around April/May of '09 in terms of raw job losses from recent peak.

Using that methodology, in February we were down 37.6K, March 35.6K, April 32.2K, and in May 32.5K. That is not a perfectly smooth recovery (we actually retreated in May), but still that is an average of over 2K in gap-closing per month recently. At that average rate we could be back to recent peak job totals in a year or so.

Of course even if that happened, our unemployment rate would likely remain elevated for quite some time because our labor force appears to have grown at least 30K during the recession, and may still be growing. So we would need to not only pass recent peak employment but also add a bunch more jobs to get back to a normal unemployment rate.

Tuesday, July 20, 2010 4:14:00 PM  
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