Friday, November 05, 2010

Perpetually Parsing Politics

Really is too much to poke at these days... parking, pensions, there ought to be a new city budget somewhere, some funky doings in PWSA debt and we have not really parsed much of the election results beyond the superficial.  Let's get through this election cycle first.

So how about this?  It is a curious thing the divergence between Sestak and Onorato across the state.  Not having statewide data, can only do this within the county.  Here is a map of the difference between Sestak and Onorato results on Tuesday.  I thought there would be some clear pattern, but as much as I fiddled with it, I really couldn't get anything to pop out of the map.  Maybe there is something to be said for the lack of pattern.  Hopefully I have this labeled well enough to be self explanatory. Blue is where Sestak did better than Onorato and red is where Onorato did better than Sestak. Within +/- 2 percentage points I left white.

Just about the only think that has some stylized fact to explain it is the block there in Shaler that may come from it being Corbett's home district resulting in some pull from Onorato there.  Beyond that, looks relatively uniform to me.

Difference Between Results for Dan Onorato vs. Joe Sestak - Fall 2010 General Election, Allegheny County


Anonymous The Wiz said...

I'm surprised that Sestak outpolled Onorato almost everywhere and shocked that some places by more than 10%. Afterall, Onorato is a local product that gets re-elected here so the people do like him. You would think that a local boy would outdo a eastern Pa product every time. Maybe its just a reflection of just how bad the Republican Party is in Allegheny Co.... that people elect Onorato because they have no real choice.
oh wait, I just figured it out....people LOVE Onorato so much they didn't want him to leave!

Friday, November 05, 2010 8:30:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nah. This is pretty simple, I think. Corbett strikes folks as a traditional, good government Republican. The type this state produces (and votes for) in droves. As for Toomey, well, I think that Mike Huckabee hit close to the mark for many people when he called him a member of the "Club for Greed." Many of my fine Republican friends told me that they could not bring themselves to vote for Toomey. Without Tea Party and Chamber of Commerce money flooding the airways at the last minute for Toomey--and maybe another couple of days--Sestak likely would have won.

Friday, November 05, 2010 8:54:00 AM  
Anonymous The Wiz said...

You may be right but in an election that went against the Progressives nationwide, it is interesting that more people voted for the progressive Sestak than a home town candidate. Even more so when that homeboy was more liberal/progressive than Corbett. Thus they voted for the Progressive out-of-towner more than the progressive homeboy.

Would be interesting to see if that was consistent with the surrounding counties.

Maybe its just all the heavy drinkers pissed about the drink tax.

Friday, November 05, 2010 10:56:00 AM  
Anonymous MH said...

Since we're guessing, my guess is that there are irked Democrats and they wanted to express how irked they were without costing the party an election. So, they voted for the Dem that everyone said was in a close race and against the Dem everybody said was going to lose.

Also, I saw like 6 Sestak signs for every Onorato sign I saw in my neighborhood. I don't know why it happened, but it certainly wasn't a surprise even without polling.

Friday, November 05, 2010 11:50:00 AM  
Blogger illyrias said...

Have you tried cross-referencing the map with bar density? The #1 complaint I hear about Onorato is the drink tax.

Friday, November 05, 2010 12:49:00 PM  
Anonymous Minuteman said...

I know that many far left Dems wouldn't support Dan because of what they perceived to be his stance on Marcellus Shale. This is extremely unfortunate, they will find the winner to be many times worse on that topic.

Friday, November 05, 2010 2:13:00 PM  
Anonymous Ryan said...

Seems to me that there was a lot of anti-Onorato sentiment in the areas most affected by his inane base year assessment gimmick. The Mon Valley, Allegheny Valley, and lots of South Hills inner-ring suburbs went "against" Onorato. Property owners in these areas are still paying 2002 taxes on real estate worth far less now. Seems like reason enough to not vote for him.

Friday, November 05, 2010 6:25:00 PM  
Anonymous MH said...

That was a nice gimmick.

Friday, November 05, 2010 6:46:00 PM  

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