Wednesday, December 22, 2010

What will Pennsylvania look like without 12

Everyone keeps saying that the most likely congressional district that will be targeted for elimination is PA12, formerly held by the late John Murtha and now with Mark Critz as the incumbent.   I still say that eliminating just one seat in Pennsylvania will force significant boundary changes across the entire state.  Just to get folks pondering on that, imagine how the void created by 12 will be carved out just within SW PA.. and then begin to consider what secondary impacts that will have in further districts. Just to begin, you are not going to keep the meticulously crafted PA18 looking anything like what it does. 

10 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

You should put a spot on for estimated locations for the Congressperson's home. They can force a Congressperson out just by putting their residence in a district that contains very little of their former district.

For instance Mike Doyle doesn't live in the city and they could shift his district the West and force him into another district.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010 12:05:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

Pols can move... and Doyle would know that as well as anyone. His old boss Pecora moved across the entire state when they moved his district. It's an amazing story in redistricting if you don't know the details. Worth looking up.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010 12:27:00 PM  
Anonymous The Wiz said...

There will be lots of gerrymandering done across the state, especially with all the new census data to take advantage of. There are 17 states that have to redraw their districts, as far as I can tell. They will all do their best to keep their respective parties in power.

It would be great for Wikileaks to post all the deals being made behind the scenes. Lots of pork, lots photo ops, lots of future promises being made. "If I put your brother-in-law on my staff can I keep my district?"

Lots of Congressmen are now sucking up to governors and state reps that they have ignored since the last census.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010 12:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Patrick said...

I bet the 12th doesn't change much at all - too many Democrats to be shifted to GOP seats. Tim Murphy sure doesn't want the Mon Valley, and Kelly wont want any more Dems in his district. The only logical thing to do is put more Dems in the 5th and 9th, but then you may take a safe GOP seat and make it marginal.

If I were a betting man, I would wager that the GOP gives up on trying to unseat Holden in the 17th, and adds more Dems to his seat; in the process rescuing the lost throngs of GOP voters longing for representatnion by a Republican (see Lebanon Co).

[Of course, it all depends on whether Murphy runs for Senate and no longer demands his district stay in-tact.]

Wednesday, December 22, 2010 2:19:00 PM  
Anonymous Patrick said...

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistricting2.0.aspx

This site was on a friend's facebook page a few weeks ago. Initially tough to figure out how to manipulate the maps, but a worthwhile exercise.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010 2:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do you know the average registered voters per current district and do you have a feel for how that's going to change?

Wednesday, December 22, 2010 2:33:00 PM  
Anonymous johnnyg said...

That's a great question, Anon. Especially given that the numbers are likely to show that the midstate (well, east-midstate) continues to grow while Western PA likely hemmoraged population, we're likely to see district boundaries shift east, and larger northern/western districts (area-wise). Any growth here due to the recession or Marcellus was likely missed due to the 4/1/10 cutoff.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010 3:54:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interestingly, Congresspeople don't have to live in the district that they represent, just the state.

Thursday, December 23, 2010 9:34:00 AM  
Blogger fester said...

Let's assume an optimize expected GOP seat gain in an 18 seat delegation problem with the VRA and don't let incumbent GOP reps lose constraints --- Tearing apart the 12th is one of the easiest solutions possible... throw a good chunk of the Mon Valley into the 14th, as well as run part of the district down the southbound lane of I-79 to Washington City, and that gives the 14th a decent population boost from its currently low base.

Shift the northwestern portion of Westmoreland County into the 4th, making it slightly more GOP than it is now. The 18th eats up the remainder of Greene and Washington County, while the 14th moves a little more into the South Hills

After that, have the 14th shed whatever GOP leaning precincts it has into the 4th while sending back the Dem leaning Allegheny River Valley shore-side towns (exluding most of the Fox Chapel School District).

The rest of the 12 goes into the South Central/Turnpike District that is centered on I-99 now.

Thursday, December 23, 2010 7:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fester, the trouble is the 14th has no GOP leaning precints; the NW part of Westmoreland is Democratic (which is why it ended up in the 12th last time) and the mon valley portions of the 12th have far too many people to add to the 14th without adding other Dems to either the 18th or 4th.
To get rid of the 12th, one would have to endanger the 18th or 9th (Shuster) for the GOP, which I bet they won't do.

Sunday, December 26, 2010 11:41:00 PM  

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