Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Who is in the hot seat?

The numbers are out and Pennsylvania will lose one congressional seat resulting from reapportionment. That is pretty much what has been predicted most of the last decade so it is not a suprise. If only more of those Marcellus Shale workers flying reported their ususal residence as Pennsylvania.   In fairness it was not that close and probably a dozen states came in closer to gaining a seat relative to how the numbers came out before Pennsylvania would have retained its 19th congressional district.  There is always the next cycle.

Question lots are asking is which incumbent, or which district will go away.  The short answer is that with one district being removed from the Pennsylvania map, you will see significant boundary changes to all congressional districts.  There is basically no way you can take out any one congressional district and not have it cause secondary impacts in all the others within the state. 

Working image appended below fyi... 


Blogger Karl Zimmerman said...

Consensus seems to be the Republicans will seek to eliminate PA-12 wholesale, given outer Southwestern PA has shrunk enough, and turned Republican enough, that you don't need to pack the Democrats like you did with Murtha - you can split them between 2-3 Republican districts.

But your point is often missed. I's one reason I don't understand, for example, why the consensus on New York redistricting is the second seat eliminated must be in NYC to balance out the upstate seat, given all the population decline was in upstate, and the result would just turn one of the upstate districts into a downstate one anyway.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010 1:37:00 PM  
Anonymous MH said...

The graphic works if you click on it.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010 1:47:00 PM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

PA is very close to having the national average number of people per district, which confirms it wasn't particularly close to losing none, or for that matter losing two.

In non-redistricting Census news, it looks like PA had about 100,000 more people in the 2010 Census count than the Census had estimated for 2009. It will be interesting to find out where those 100,000 people show up when we get local population figures.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010 3:04:00 PM  
Blogger Conservative Mountaineer said...

@BrianTH.. Well, they may show up in Philadelphia.. so that the number of residents now match the number of people who voted in the 2008 election. /rimshot

Tuesday, December 21, 2010 3:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I saw a list yesterday of the 10 most and least populous Congressional districts. "Most" were pushing 900K, least, around 500K. PA-14, Mike Doyle, by and large a liberal Dem, showed up in the least. Does that mean anything?

Wednesday, December 22, 2010 8:59:00 AM  
Anonymous MH said...

I count for 400,000 people. Also, Doyle isn't that liberal.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010 9:11:00 AM  

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