Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Daily Ranking: Drain to Gain

I think Jim already has some comments on this, but note the latest from Brookings: Migration Declines Further: Stalling Brain Gains and Ambitions

In particular check out their Table 2.II.  Looks to me that if you skip New Orleans and their particular circumstances (euphemism for flood, disaster or calamity, pick your semantics)... Pittsburgh has the biggest magnitude of swing in that table in terms of shifting from migration loss to migration gain among folks with college degrees. 

Bafflegab I tell you... Bafflegab.


Anonymous BrianTH said...

Isn't SLC higher too? Still pretty remarkable.

In general, if the trends in the recent years of ACS data are correct, and if those trends persist, then Pittsburgh might undergo a more rapid transformation in the next 10-15 years than most people are expecting. That's two big ifs, but still, it is interesting to imagine.

Thursday, January 13, 2011 12:09:00 AM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

SLC .86 - (-.18) = 1.04
Pgh .30 - (-.83) = 1.13

Still higher Pgh? I'm talking about the swing. There is a technical issue in that. Those are 3 year ACS datapoints. Differences (other than sheer sample error) come from the changes to one year of that data. In a sense, the year over year change gets washed out proportionally because the marginal year's data are merged in with the other year. Could mean the real change is even larger... but ACS has all sorts of issues.

Thursday, January 13, 2011 5:40:00 AM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

I think I might have misadded the SLC numbers in my head.

I thought that was 2005-07 and 2007-09. So only one year of common sampling, no? Call it a big difference between 2005/06 versus 2008/09.

I agree ACS has issues--but what else have we got? I'm fine with noting all the potential problems, sampling errors, and so forth. But unless we are going to get a different annual data source addressing all these issues in all these areas, it seems to me the goal has to be trying to work with ACS as best we can (supplemented, of course, with other sources when available).

Thursday, January 13, 2011 1:26:00 PM  

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