Tuesday, January 25, 2011

The politics of declining numbers

First off from the wonkobesessed...  Many know that there is an ever escalating level of confusion over some of the big changes the US Census burea has implemented in recent years.  Changes to the decennial census which will no longer have the "long form" and thus have a lot less data than even in 2000, all while a new program called the "American Community Survey" starts up.  So hold that thought.

Via the PG Early Returns blog is this item: SWPA likely loser in redistricting.  It says someone has presented a new picture of how redistricting will impact regions within Pennsylvania.. specifically that they:  "presented a map of all the counties in Pennsylvania that lost or gained population in the just-concluded 10-year census".

Problem is...  the results of county populations from the 2010 census have not been released just yet.  There has been one data dump from the 2010 census, which is just the population totals by state. No breakdown beyond the total population in each of 50 states which is what was required for US congressional reapportionment.  So there has been no other data released from the "just conlcuded 10-year" census that will help anyone with redistricting.  I have not seen what they used for data, but it was data from some other source which may or may not work in context, it all depends. That or the news item mis-described the data as presented.  I dunno.

Some years ago I made this map of my prediction of the county by county changes in Pennsylvania General Assembly seats that I would anticipate based on population trends through the decade... but it still is just a projection until we get the detailed data from the decennial census.  That data, by the way, must be distributed by the end of March, and last I heard they (the Census gnomes) are going to dump it out in February. 


Blogger Richmond K. Turner said...

I always suspected that there were gnomes deep within the Federal government. Now I know that they are hiding in the Census Bureau. Gnomes always give me the creeps.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011 7:30:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

ding ding, ding ding, ding ding, ding ding

Tuesday, January 25, 2011 9:55:00 PM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

There may be some mild surprises in the distribution of population, particularly given the impact of the recession. We shall see.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011 9:54:00 AM  

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