Friday, March 11, 2011

Don't Shoot the Messenger

Hard to be the bearer of good news in this town.  This is something just out and quite honestly I am surprised. If it holds up over next few months it is pretty big economic news.

You can check out the latest dump of total non-farm jobs for the region from the BLS here. I have done absolutely nothing other than calculate the year over year change over the last 3 years. What is interesting about the January data just released? 

Like I said.. if it holds up.  January is still a preliminary number, so something to keep an eye on.

Actually, let's update that chart to see how far back you need to go.  The answer is February 2001.  More the evidence it must be an anomaly.  Can't be true right?  Here is the longer term picture of same:


Anonymous BrianTH said...

We also made a big leap in January if you compare it to the same-month/recent-peak.

Of course there is indeed variation month to month. And in general, we still have a ways to go to get back to peak employment, and then we have to add more jobs still to get back to the pre-recession unemployment rates (given what appears to be an increase in the local labor force).

But it would be nice if that happened sooner rather than later, so an acceleration of job growth would be great,

Friday, March 11, 2011 11:39:00 AM  
Anonymous Adam said...

I'd be interested in seeing the comparison to the national trends in the latter graph.

Friday, March 11, 2011 1:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Cosmetic surgery said...

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Saturday, March 12, 2011 1:44:00 AM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

Was there some sort of population-adjustment thing that happened in January? I have a vague recollection of that being an annual occurrence.

I don't think that would undermine the yoy number, but maybe the difference between late-2010 and January was not as dramatic.

Saturday, March 12, 2011 9:10:00 AM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

This is payroll derived data, so not a population impact directly. There was an adjustment to the seasonal adjustment in January.. but it should have have been 'backcast' a couple years so it would not change the interpretation of a particular year over year number unless you cross over the period included in the adjustment.

Still.. worth keeping an eye on more than overinterpreting. Is it a one month thing? Or a big jump into a trend? We don't know yet.

Saturday, March 12, 2011 9:43:00 AM  
Anonymous DBR96A said...

Clearly, there are no jobs in Pittsburgh.

Saturday, March 12, 2011 8:17:00 PM  
Anonymous MH said...

Lots of jobs. Unless you don't have an MD or a JD and want to earn more than $20 per hour. At the staff level, Pitt's pay scales are very clearly designed by people who want to get hires from among people who are just starting out or are trailing spouses.

(And that's even if you ignore the comical bottom of the range figure. For an unfair example pulled from many similar postings, a certain center that researches social issues urban areas is looking for someone with a masters and three years of stats experience. The alleged bottom of the range is $14/hour.)

Sunday, March 13, 2011 11:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Essay Writer said...

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Monday, March 14, 2011 6:24:00 AM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

Mining and Logging, Construction, and Manufacturing have all made above-average contributions to the year over year job gain.

Monday, March 14, 2011 8:15:00 AM  
Anonymous MH said...

Cutting down trees is great fun, but I think for it to be a job, you have can't just fell them across the neighbor's driveway and leave.

Monday, March 14, 2011 9:29:00 AM  
Blogger Bram Reichbaum said...

Put up a video or something. We're scared.

Monday, March 14, 2011 6:54:00 PM  
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