Tuesday, March 08, 2011

I don't see it

Just more on the county population estimates released yesterday; also that were discussed yesterday here. I don't have time to get into what this is telling me.. but let's just say I'm not seeing it.  A little maybe, but just in some very localized places.  Anyway, this is what I get when you map it out the most recent growth being estimated across the state.


Blogger Jim Russell said...

Not seeing a Marcellus migration?

Tuesday, March 08, 2011 4:10:00 PM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

That was my guess (no notable Marcellus effect). But I don't know--how about Westmoreland versus Washington?

Anyway, I DO see the large metros increasing their already-dominant role in Pennsylvania. In fact if you had told me that was a population density map of PA, I might have bought it for a second (e.g., before realizing Butler was darker than Allegheny).

Tuesday, March 08, 2011 5:03:00 PM  
Anonymous n'at said...

K.I.S.S.: all the folks from the red counties went to the green ones.

Except Huntingdon County - perhaps if Mt. Union was spelled with an umlaut?

Tuesday, March 08, 2011 8:00:00 PM  
Anonymous MH said...

The U.S. as a whole is growing at something above .8%, so all of these could be relative decline.

Tuesday, March 08, 2011 9:21:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

yeah.. there is some green there in Tioga and environs. But these are really unpopulated places. The green in those counties is coming from a few hundred folks at most. If there is some wave of folks permanently moving into these counties, they are not yet registering in the IRS data as having moved. I think mid-2010 is late enough to capture something. We'll keep an eye on it all.

Tuesday, March 08, 2011 11:14:00 PM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

Since the already highly-populated areas are growing the fastest (more or less), the total population growth is going to be higher than you would think if you just averaged over land.

But yes, it is quite likely the population of Pennsylvania is still growing slower than the U.S. population as a whole, and that may well continue indefinitely. I don't think that is something for states like Pennsylvania to be overly concerned about--yes it means gradual decline in political weight on the federal level, but it is likely a good thing for their per capita prosperity.

And as far as the politics is concerned, it also means other areas are increasingly going to have common interests with denser states like Pennsylvania. So the loss of direct political weight may be more than offset by having a lot more natural allies when it comes to federal policy.

Wednesday, March 09, 2011 6:59:00 AM  
Anonymous The Wiz said...

Maybe part of the story as to why you don't see a big boost in population due to Marcellus gas work is that a lot of people working in the gas play are local people, thus our below average unemployment numbers.

I attended a seminar yesterday at Slippery Rock U that was run by a company that trains people for 4 to 6 weeks for working in the gas field. He has placed 400 people with gas companies or related companies in the past two years. He said his placement rate is over 85%.

And that is just one company, not counting others, tech schools, community colleges, Penn College, and in house training. There are lots of programs out there for people to get the proper training.

Wednesday, March 09, 2011 2:03:00 PM  

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