Friday, July 22, 2011

Prognostication

The news statewide is that the jobs count dropped and the unemployment rate ticked up in June, just as it did for the US as a whole.

To be the optimistic contrarian, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that when we learn the comparable data for the Pittsburgh region in a little more than a week or so the jobs count will be up and the unemployment rate will drop.   What can we bet on that?

I am working on a predictive model of short term labor force changes in the region.  I should show more guts and put a more specific number on that prediction, but it isn't quite ready yet.  Maybe soon. 

1 Comments:

Anonymous BrianTH said...

No bet. CES data is already out and it showed a huge jump in the job count in Pittsburgh, June over May. There is always an increase in June over May, but this was way bigger than any other increase in the data I saw (which goes back to 2001)--a good increase would be around 8,000, and this was over 15,000.

Friday, July 22, 2011 4:44:00 PM  

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