A tale of two economic impact reports
Now we have two specific numbers, both by Penn State researchers, with comprehensive economic impact analysis of the development of Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania.
Just out and dated August 2011
Economic Impacts of Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania: Employment and Income in 2009, by Timothy W. Kelsey (Penn State), Martin Shields (Colorado State), James R. Ladlee (Penn State), and Melissa Ward (Penn State), in cooperation with Tracy L. Brundage (Penn College), Jeffrey F. Lorson (Penn College), Larry L. Michael (Penn College), and Thomas B. Murphy (Penn State)
and this from last month, dated July 20, 2011:
The Pennsylvania Marcellus Shale Gas Industry: Status, Economic Impacts and Future Potential, by Timothy J. Considine, Robert Watson and Seth Blumsack
The former said the 2009 employment impact in Pennsylvania was 24,000 net new jobs while the latter says 44,000. Future projctions are always fraught with uncertainty, but with this being late 2011, these are both ex post numbers for the most part. Both use the same economic model (IMPLAN) and they both state they attempt to capture direct, indirect and induced economic impacts of all known Marcellus Shale related activity. It goes without saying that the differences must come from variation in what numbers are fed into the model to begin with.
Just one of the differences between the two studies is the attempt in the more recent one to account for out of state ownership of Pennsylvania's Marcellus resources. If you doubt how big a deal that is, note how the recent revision in shale gas resources has made news in India. It impacts the supply chain as well which you can see how news from last year on pipeline manufacturing for shale gas demand actually made news in Russia.