Unstats for Unemployment
PG headline: Region's jobless rate falls a little. The drop was 4/10ths of a percent was one of the largest month over month drops in a decade. The only bigger drop was what is reported between Dec 2010 and Jan 2011 where there was a -0.7 point drop. I bet that has more to do with some revisions in 2010 more than anything else. Might forbode some similar out of pattern shifts at the end of this year as well. So if that was a little, I just wonder what would constitute a moderate drop in the unemployment rate? Honestly, it is a sampling artifact most likely, but so was the jump in unemployment rate reported last month. Wait until the next revision when the data gets matched to more complete payroll data and I bet there will be some surprises for the region.
Trib also tried to discount it with this line of explanation "The jobless rate fell mainly because schools reopened and rehired staff, adding 7,200 jobs, state and area economists said. " Which just isn't true. These are seasonally adjusted numbers being reported on. So let's go back over a decade and look at all the month over months changes between respective Augusts and Septembers. I am pretty sure schools always open up again in September, yet there rarely is a drop in the unemployment rate.. sometimes even an increase. So that isn't the story at all. See:
| ||Period||Civilian Labor Force||Employment||Unemployment||Unemployment Rate (%)||Report|
and just something to ponder a bit.. Other than for September 2008, the regional labor force is the highest it has ever been in any September ever. All while at least nationally labor force participation is down significantly over the last few years.
Anyway... just an update on my graphic showing the difference between the local and national unemployment rates. Now at 60 straight months of faring better than the nation. Well into historic territory for Pittsburgh where this has never been recorded before over such a long period of time.