Friday, May 18, 2012

Pittsburgh Scoring Jobs

Some new jobs numbers are out for April. These are the Pittsburgh jobs, not the state data in the news today. Not much change from trend. Region up YOY and for April only below the 2001 über peak that I have argued is a bit anomalous.

Maybe we will just summarize in a graph below.  Note always the scale of the axis.  So the slope of the trend I put in there may appear larger than you might think. It is not the largest rates of job growth, but when you think about it, it is a lot steadier than some in town presume.   Why is it not so large?  You have to consider that by the middle of the 1990's the natural population change for the region turned negative.  More deaths than births reflect changes long ago, and are not really reflective of current economic competitiveness in any way.  Yet fewer people mean fewer jobs needed.  Roughly 2/3rds of the regional economy is for jobs that provide goods and services to the regional population.  So at the end of the day there were jobs being taken outof the local economy no matter and continue to this day.  Pittsburgh remains the only large metro region with natural population decline.  Still, for everyone who is convinced all positive economic stories of Pittsburgh are ephemeral, or for some who believe it is all outright fiction, here is my annotated version of the last 20 years of job growth in the Pittsburgh region. Unctuous bafflegab it may very well be.


Blogger BrianTH said...

"Yet fewer people mean fewer jobs needed."

Assuming there is no longer a reserve of women available to add to the labor force, we're at the point where the converse is true as well: these days, more jobs filled must mean more people available to fill them.

Friday, May 18, 2012 3:35:00 PM  
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