Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Sophisters, economists and calculators

So...  I and a million others will parse this after the fact, but for the record the final prognostications of Nate Silver, aka 538, and Unskewed Polls are below. Silver says Obama gets 313 electoral votes. Unskewed says 263. Some anti-538 rhetoric has been bubbling though the election season for sure, but I am suprised it continues even today with this. Jonah Goldberg in LATimes: Nate Silver's numbers racket.

I mean..  at this point why dig a hole for yourself?  We will see soon whose prediction worked out better.  If Silver is wrong, plenty of time to gloat ex post.  If his prediction works out better then you are now on the record as being anti-math. But I was reminded by Goldberg of the Burke quote used in the title here.   If only wordsmithing was akin to statistics.



 
 


11 Comments:

Blogger Bram Reichbaum said...

Nate's model yielded an *average* EV outcome of 313.0 for Obama -- that doesn't make it a possible outcome in itself. I think a more fair way to track his "prediction" is to add up the EV's for each states his model indicates is more likely to go to Obama, which I believe puts it at about 325... although Florida is only at a 50.5% chance, a true tossup.

Tuesday, November 06, 2012 7:25:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

Bayesian Bram strikes.

But for bedtime reading: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference#Making_a_prediction

Tuesday, November 06, 2012 7:30:00 PM  
Anonymous MH said...

Fortunately, nobody can agree on priors in my work, so I don't need to worry about Bayes very often.

Tuesday, November 06, 2012 7:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

Wednesday, November 07, 2012 12:30:00 AM  
Blogger Bram Reichbaum said...

Now I know to be pleased about that...

http://xkcd.com/1132/

I tell you, we are approaching a geek singularity.

Friday, November 09, 2012 5:18:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

Yes, there are folks who debate over dinner whether the cat is dead or not.

Friday, November 09, 2012 5:41:00 PM  
Anonymous MH said...

I knew which cartoon that was before I looked. It's a really annoying cartoon.

Friday, November 09, 2012 10:38:00 PM  
Blogger Bram Reichbaum said...

One thing that only recently struck me about that problem (sorry, maybe this is old hat): isn't the cat itself an observer?

Sunday, November 11, 2012 11:41:00 AM  
Anonymous MH said...

The cat is drugged into unconsciousness. IRB requirement.

Sunday, November 11, 2012 2:24:00 PM  
Blogger 柯云 said...

2016-05-25keyun
michael kors purses
coach outlet
oakley outlet
louis vuitton handbags
asics running shoes
michael kors outlet online sale
polo outlet
coach outlet
nike air max uk
ray bans
jordan retro 8
cheap air jordans
beats by dre outlet
louis vuitton outlet stores
louis vuitton
coach outlet
michael kors outlet
ray ban outlet
tiffany rings
coach outlet clearance
michael kors outlet online
ray ban sunglasses outlet
cheap toms shoes
supra shoes
oakley vault
louis vuitton purses
louis vuitton outlet
kate spade outlet
timberland boots
adidas outlet store
christian louboutin outlet
tory burch outlet
air jordan shoes
michael kors outlet clearance
gucci belts
michael kors outlet clearance
michael kors purses
ray ban sunglasses outlet
louis vuitton outlet

Wednesday, May 25, 2016 1:31:00 AM  
Blogger Fangyaya said...

ghd hair straighteners
louis vuitton handbags
retro jordans 13
adidas stan smith
coach factory outlet online
air jordan shoes
abercrombie clothing
coach outlet
coach factory outlet
coach outlet online
kate spade outlet
hermes birkin handbags
ray ban sonnenbrille
toms shoes
coach outlet store online clearances
mont blanc pens outlet
louis vuitton outlet online
coach factory outlet online
ray ban outlet
louis vuitton outlet
lebron 13
air jordan 8
rolex watches
coach outlet clearance
louis vuitton purses
coach factory outlet
ray bans
coach outlet store online clearances
adidas nmd
coach outlet
cheap ray ban sunglasses
polo ralph lauren
supra shoes
air jordan 4
oakley outlet
michael kors outlet clearance
michael kors purses
christian louboutin outlet
coach outlet online
burberry sale
20168.9chenjinyan

Monday, August 08, 2016 10:22:00 PM  

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home