Monday, March 04, 2013

My mayoral prediction

Got your attention eh?

I do not lie, I have a prediction to make.  Drumroll....

I predict there will be far fewer actual candidates on the ballot than the current comment-o-rama would have you believe.  I mean, if Mark R. isn't running, is there really an election coming up?

Sorry if you were expecting more.

Ok.. skipping the existential, there are more practical issues.  The higher profile names being floated are all smart political folk by definition.  They realize the uncertainty of a wide open race (and that only one person can win in the end) and many won't want to risk losing... even potentially losing badly.  The lesser profile candidates are going to have a hard time getting to a Mendoza level of money and signatures given the abbreviated timing and having to begin from a standing start. I am not saying there will not be some new candidates since it really isn't that hard to get on the ballot (Les L anyone, or who remembers Josh P?). Just that there will be far fewer than some are pondering.  The real unknown factors are any intentional spoilers who don't really expect to win, but want to be on the ballot nonetheless.

Josh by the way had the best political slogan in years, and put pols twice his age to shame for the amount of earned media he garnered. Actually I don't think there was a candidate that cycle less than 3 times his age.  He must have set some record here in Pittsburgh for not only being the youngest candidate, but also the only voter under 20 in the same election cycle. Some say he got enough votes to sway the election for Murphy over O'Connor that year.  I don't think the numbers really add up to that conclusion, but who knows??

But let's say there is a horde of candidates.  It has happened before. It would mean a lot of pain since there is no way it could not devolve into a circular firing squad. From 24 years ago here is just one headline: Lucchino to Masloff: 'come clean', Flaherty attacks Murphy's loyalty. Jim there didn't even have enough column inches to fit in all the accusations flying that day between them all. 

More interesting from that 24 year old story is that the PG actually referenced a "Greensburg Tribune Review" poll for the race. When was the last time that happened?

addendum: Jim's old story also raises a question for today.  There has been no reporting I am aware of that anyone (D or R) is circulating petitions for the Republican slot in the mayoral primary.  Any sightings out there?



3 Comments:

Blogger Vannevar said...

What's the rest of Josh's story to date? Where is he, what's he doing? Google is inconclusive, which is remarkable in itself. Josh Pollard come on down!

Monday, March 04, 2013 7:06:00 AM  
Blogger Bram Reichbaum said...

"A new poll conducted for KDKA and the Greensburg Tribune-Review..."??!?

Monday, March 04, 2013 8:22:00 PM  
Blogger Josh Pollock said...

I apologize that my SEO is so poor. You can keep tabs on me at ComplexWaveform.com or on the Twitter.

Thursday, March 07, 2013 10:11:00 PM  

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