Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Parse parse parse


Lots of parsing to go, but just one important look at the results yesterday.  Here are three snapshots of the results for each major candidate by demographics of the district.  This gives me an estimate of the election results within the Black community that works out like this:

Peduto  37%
Wheatley 32%
Wagner 30%

So just my estimate is all that is.  No official count of results by race (I get asked about such a thing a lot actually).

I'll let others opine on how this reflects on each of the candidates, but the relatively even split between all three candidates certainly means that the efforts to coalesce AA support behind one candidate didn't work out all that well. Also it is looking to me that one of the reasons for relatively low turnout this race was low turnout in the AA community.  I've seen some reuse of my 30% estimate for Black voters within the primary, which is what I get looking at some past elections. Part of the low turnout story is concentrated in certain districts. I am pretty sure we were not anywhere near 30% this cycle. Maybe 25%.

Note it is even superficial to overthink the average.  You can see in the charts there is a decent amount of unexplained variation.  So the support each candidate received varied within the AA districts.