Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Housing trends in Pittsburgh

(Verbatim) From our friends at the Cleveland Fed:

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The Community Development team has just released updated Community Stabilization Index (CSI) maps for the Pittsburgh MSA using January 2013 data.*

If you are unfamiliar with the Index, the CSI is a composite index of housing variables that compares zip codes within a region on their relative intensity of housing distress.  We created the first set of maps using June 2011 data; we update the maps every six months.  Maps showing the Pittsburgh MSA, along with maps that show 11 other Fourth District counties and regions, can be viewed
here<http://www.clevelandfed.org/Community_Development/publications/CSI/maps.cfm#allegheny>.
You'll find a more in-depth description of the index and its variables here<http://www.clevelandfed.org/Community_Development/publications/CSI/201106/index.cfm?DCS.nav=Local>.

A brief analysis of regional CSI trends in the Pittsburgh MSA follows:


1.       90 Days or More Delinquency Index: The region's delinquency rate has declined from its peak of 3.7% in January 2010 to 2.8%.  This delinquency rate remains below the state average of 3.1%.  The highest rates are in Fayette County (Dunbar and Franklin Townships) and inner-ring suburbs east of Pittsburgh (Penn Hills Township and McKeesport), while the lowest rates are in eastern Allegheny County and southern Butler County.  Compared to January 2012 the largest increases occurred in several communities east of Pittsburgh (Duquesne and North Braddock) and the largest decreases have occurred in several communities in Fayette County and northeast Butler County.

2.       Foreclosure Index: The region's foreclosure rate, like its delinquencyrate, has also declined from its peak of 2.9% in August 2012 to the current rate of2.4%.  This also remains significantly lower than the state average of 3.3%.  The highest rates are seen in several communities in eastern Westmoreland County and northern Armstrong County, while the lowest rates are in western Allegheny County and southern Butler County.  Compared to January 2012, a number of zip codes are seeing slight increases in their foreclosure rates, but close to 80% of the region's zip codes remain below the statewide foreclosure rate.

3.       REO Index:  Only ten 10 zip codes contain REO rates greater than 2%.  Compared to January 2012, almost 20% of the region's zip codes saw an increase in their REO rates.  However, most of the changes were less than 0.60 percentage points.

4.       Home Value Change Index: From 2005 to 2012, only 5% of the zip codes with reported data saw a decline in home value.  The trends are more volatile whencomparing 2011 to 2012, as roughly equal numbers of zip codes showed increases in  home values as showed decreases.

5.       Originations to Shadow Inventory Index (SI): According to this indicator, a zip code with more mortgage originations per distressed units indicates a sign of recovery.  This ratio is highest in communities in western Allegheny and southern Butler counties, and lowest in northeastern Armstrong County.

6.       Credit Delinquency Index: The highest credit delinquency rates are in Pittsburgh's eastern inner-ring suburbs and northern Westmoreland County, while the lowest are in communities north and southwest of Pittsburgh.  No clear pattern is discernible when comparing rates to January 2012.

7.       Community Stabilization Index: Overall, the region's delinquency and foreclosure rates are below the state averages and many communities are seeing stable or rising home values; this bodes well for the region's future.  That being said, there are still several communities in Fayette and Armstrong counties, as well as just east of Pittsburgh, that face high levels of distress.

2 Comments:

Anonymous BrianTH said...

Interesting that with the exception of the East, generally the farther out in the suburbs/exurbs, the worse the numbers tend to be.

The City is a bit of a mixed bag, as you would expect, but where it is doing well by these measures it is doing VERY well (perhaps also as you would expect).

Thursday, June 27, 2013 9:53:00 AM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

By the way, Wilkinsburg on the Home Values map looks like an extension of the East End. It doesn't do quite as well on some of the other measures, but it is still doing consistently better than, say, Penn Hills, resulting in an overall decent CSI.

Just thought that was worth pointing out given our recent discussions of whether or not there might be some benefit to the City in a school district merger with Wilkinsburg.

Thursday, June 27, 2013 10:00:00 AM  

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