Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Detroit is dead, long live Detroit

In addition to conflating city and region, all the news and punditry on Detroit misses just how far Detroit's (regional) economy has clawed back from being at the nexus of the Great Recession.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

How does raw employment look? How many Detroit residents lost their jobs and simply left the area? I wouldn't really call it a "clawing back" in that case.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013 1:23:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

If migration is an equivocation.. then what does it say about the comparison to Pittsburgh of all places??

Tuesday, July 23, 2013 1:54:00 PM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

Krugman's piece, previously linked, had a nice comparison of Detroit's job trend since 1990 versus Pittsburgh's.

Suffice it to say that when it comes to Detroit, the patient has arguably been stabilized, but has a long way to go to be called recovered. And I believe the pace of their jobs recovery has recently slowed down quite a bit (same deal here to some extent, but we are not still way below the pre-recession jobs count, and instead are setting new highs).

Tuesday, July 23, 2013 3:26:00 PM  
Blogger Jim Russell said...

An then there is this bit of divergence.

Tuesday, July 23, 2013 5:51:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

Amazing what drivel can be found on the intertubes.....

Tuesday, July 23, 2013 6:01:00 PM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

So to sum up: both jobs growth (good) and labor force shrinkage (not so good) contributed to the relatively rapid decline in Detroit's unemployment rate during the first couple years of its recovery. Recently the labor force has stabilized (probably including some discouraged workers rejoining the labor force), but jobs growth has slowed.

The bottomline is that Detroit was on a bad path before the recession, and hasn't fully recovered from the additional damage caused by the recession. I'm actually not as much of a long-term pessimist when it comes to Detroit as some current commentators, but I do think there are good reasons why people have continued to treat Detroit as a dire case despite the reduction in its unemployment rate.

Wednesday, July 24, 2013 7:10:00 AM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

By the way, speaking of drivel on the intertubes:


Detroit was #5 in terms of net in-migration into Pittsburgh for 2009-2010. It would be interesting to see where Pittsburgh ranked in terms of Detroit's net out-migration. In any event, apparently we are one of the places where the "Detroit Diaspora" is heading--look out for Detroit Lions bars in the future (OK, maybe Red Wings and Tigers are more likely).

Wednesday, July 24, 2013 7:19:00 AM  
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