Monday, July 08, 2013

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can you do the same chart showing games behind .500?

Tuesday, July 09, 2013 3:22:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Peak Pirates?

Tuesday, July 09, 2013 9:37:00 PM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

Maybe you should mark on the chart the point in each season at which you posted this chart.

Just sayin'.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013 9:43:00 AM  
Blogger joe said...

I'm with BrianTH -- this is the bad mojo chart (until it isn't).

Appropriate for the soaked city today, here's
Exposition Park flooded out in 1913.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013 11:22:00 AM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

I take the point, but when everyone is spouting how different this year is there has to be at least one nabob with a dose of reality.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013 9:57:00 PM  
Anonymous Not Ken said...

I hate the Buccos, so I have no dog in this fight. But Mr. Nabob here is ignoring the fact that the Pirates still have the third best record in all of baseball and lead the Wild Card race by 3.5 games. They would lead any other division but for the AL East.

So yeah, this is different.

Thursday, July 11, 2013 9:20:00 AM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

I'm not sure where this puts me on the nabob dimension, but I'd note that one of the crude but fairly effective ways of assessing the future performance of a team in the middle of a season is to look at its points/goals/runs/etc. scored for versus against. Basically, that controls for teams just getting a bit lucky in terms of the distribution of their scoring, in close games, and so on, such that their W/L midseason does not accurately reflect how well they actually have played.

The good news is the Pirates are #4 in the NL at +45. The bad news is the Cardinals are #1 at +127, and the Reds are #3 at +61.

So I'd say the Pirates are looking very competitive for a wildcard, assuming the Briem Curse does not do them in. But I would probably bet against them winning their division.

Thursday, July 11, 2013 1:58:00 PM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

Oh, forgot an important caveat--using runs differential in this way more or less assumes no major lineup changes, from trades, injuries, or so on. Which happen all the time, of course, but when making bets/predictions you don't know if that stuff will end up net helpful or harmful.

Thursday, July 11, 2013 2:48:00 PM  
Blogger C. Briem said...

Briem Curse? Hmmff. Like this is all my fault.

I hate to point out that if Cincinatti had not had quite the losing streak of their own of late the wild card cushion would be much eviscerated as well.

Remember it's still July.

Thursday, July 11, 2013 10:57:00 PM  
Anonymous BrianTH said...

As we all know, correlation is causation.

Anyway, expanded wild card means we could have a Reds-Pirates wild card game. And one of the reasons I would say the Pirates are not a bad bet to make that wild card game is that after the Reds, there is a big gap in terms of wild card contenders (both in terms of W/L and runs differential).

Again, though, there are no guarantees, particularly not with the Briem Curse having been invoked.

Friday, July 12, 2013 7:43:00 AM  
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Monday, August 08, 2016 10:03:00 PM  

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