Saturday, November 30, 2013

The Condominium/Coke Paradox

You could tell the entire history of Pittsburgh through property assessments.

Today PG has this: U.S. Steel's lower taxes causing budget headaches, which talks about the ramifications of U.S.Steel's Clairton Works getting a property assessment lowered from $10 million to $2 million.  Note that is not their tax bill for the site, but the value of the site itself. The tax being due being whatever the millage is for the taxing bodies there.

Is the entire Clairton Works worth 2 million?  As the PG story notes, the company has invested "millions of dollars" on the site.  Literally true I guess, though a bit of an understatement.  Not just millions, but very recently invested hundreds of millions; make it half a billion dollars. Semantics.

Now recall that big commercial property is not valued at a market price since in reality there is no market for that site any longer. A century of coke-making has made the site virtually unusable for anything else.  Commerical property is valued on a highest and best use basis. So more what could that real estate be optimally used for.  Of course, that is a very metaphysical question for a site that has been making coke for a century. Here is the question in the end.  Is the entire Clairton Works worth just $2 million, an amount that would make it worth less than a single condo Downtown in a few buildings?  Ponder that paradox.  Can you imagine what the disparity in  $$ per square foot works out to be?

But we have been through this before.  In 1950 Allegheny County actually raised the assessment on local U.S. Steel properties.  The firm appealed those values saying that of course they were too high.  They said, insightfully, that there was no alternative use for the sites they use. In the legal machinations U.S. Steel apparachiki went public with what was a quietly spoken truth not talked about openly.......

Becauseof the shift in population and gradual decline of its natural resources advantages, Pittsburgh is losing its crown as steel king of the world.
1950 folks.  Just two years later the region would reach its all-time peak in manufacturing employment and then begin Pittsburgh's long march.

Also the corporation argued in 1950 that it plants were located "on property not desirable for business or residential uses...."  Indeed as true then and now you can make that argument, prime riverfront they are, but again why is that?


Thursday, November 28, 2013

A lot of turkeys don't make it through Thanksgiving

Again, there is only one post possible today. Apologies for the obligatory commercials, but at least Hulu has the clip... even if it remains a version with copyright-castrated music. Nonetheless, Happy Turkey Day with the greatest ten minutes in American sitcom history. Long before such beasts were ever pardoned, by the way.  If you doubt how classic this all is, there is even oral history on the episode you can read.


Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Chevron Abandons Pittsburgh

I know I probably gave a few of our friends Downtown a minor heart attack.  Relax.......

Just a big anniversary of sorts coming up tomorrow. This is a big deal in Pittsburgh's economic history... 29 years ago:


Tuesday, November 26, 2013

and Parking Chair season arrives

Just from the archives...... (I still can't believe the Wikipedia gnomes absconded with my Pittsburgh Parking Chair entry). Happy  #gobblegeddon everyone!


Monday, November 25, 2013

Historic Jobs Factoid II

This is just a corollary to last week's post on the latest employment data for the region. Not only was the latest data on the number of manufacturing jobs in the region a bit historic, here is a series of the year over year change in combined Education and Health Services Jobs in the Pittsburgh MSA.  The latest data is the largest such jump in the data going back to 1990.  I am just realizing another factoid of note...  this series has almost never gone negative.  There is one period, September 1994 to September 1995 when there was a small (-200) drop, but other than that this series has been positive every month. Again, the year just recorded is the single biggest jump looking back.


Friday, November 22, 2013

Historical jobs factoid

To be very clear up front, we are deep inside the realm of measurement error and all sorts of short term transients.... but, it's hard to not note a little factoid that comes out of today's dump of regional employment data.  There was a decent chunk of year over year job growth for the region as a whole, but a drop in manufacturing employment. Together it works out that the percentage of jobs in the region that are in the manufacturing sector has dropped to its all time (as in ever) low, albeit you have to go to a 4th decimal place to say that. 7.495% of regional jobs are registering at manufacturing establishments.  Now below the brief drop to 7.497% as the region suffered the worst of the fallout from the "Great Recession" and the credit freeze that impacted all investment. That one data point you could have written off as a macroeconomic transient, but harder to discount current data which looks like a trend.  Also what some still don't believe, but locally the  % of jobs in manufacturing is well below the comparable % for the nation (8.77%).  The region would need to gain over 15K manufacturing jobs just to get to a national average.  Not likely soon when current prospects are for a few more drops including the Horseheads Zinc plant in beaver County due to close at the end of the year, though possibly extended a bit into the new year.

I just point that out because repeatedly people tell me there is some big jump in manufacturing employment specifically here in Pittsburgh.  I suspect it is a perception driven by a lot of advertising to that effect.  But if you look at the data you get this

and just to overparse, the October data is showing a year over year increase in "Education and Health Care" jobs of +8,600 which is the single biggest year over year change in any month going back to January 1990, which is all that is in the current dataset. So two historic factoids for the price of one.


Thursday, November 21, 2013

Under the bridge Dahntahn

Switched at drafting? I want to know which will be the first to ever be built?

and is there some rule these things always have to be in watercolor?

I just have one real question... who 'owns' these notional structures when they need repaired? The city? County? State? Maybe some one-off Bridge Authority we can create?  Can't be cheap to maintain and remember we can't even afford the most basic of preventative maintenance on a lot of our bridges. Remember the rocker bearing failure on the relatively modern Birmingham Bridge just recently? Might have been prevented if they had been lubricated. Ok, maybe not modern, but certainly one of the youngest bridges we have in use.

To be fair, the top picture from the early 1960s is not only architecturally improbable at this point, but likely incompatible with Coast Guard navigation rules for bridge height on any new spans over our rivers.  The latter structure?  Seems to be in play at least as of this evening.


and the first will be last

So the data dump of the day comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and their update of metro area personal income. From their national map, Pittsburgh is about average.

But if you rank the per capital personal income growth in the top 25 MSAs (as ranked by total personal income) two things jump out.  Pittsburgh shows up a little better in comparison, but look at Washington, DC there ranking near the bottom. That has to get the attention of our WonkBlog cousins don't you think?


liquid assets liabilities

Just more detail on the already reported on new borrowing by the Pittsburgh Water and Sewer Authority.   Moody's thinks the near term is stable enough, but their full outlook report has a lot of sobering details. Their concerns include "narrow debt service coverage levels and liquidity position, supported by weak legal provisions and a highly leveraged system, with additional debt expected in the future. The rating also incorporates the authority's exposure to a major regional state and federal consent order,....".

So basically a public authority with way above average debt levels is looking at major capital needs in the future that seemingly will have to be covered with massive new borrowing into the future... new debt that will almost certainly force big new rate increases. Again, from a development perspective, and possibly from a sheer tax/cost impact on city residents, this all is more impactful than most anything doing on the 5th floor. 

The water gave me a lot of debt.


Wednesday, November 20, 2013

The Day U.S. Steel said no to steel

32 years ago today yesterday (meant to post this yesterday, but was distracted) the nearly unthinkable happened..  U.S. Steel bought Marathon Oil in a mostly unleveraged deal enabled in large part with money it was not using to reinvest into its existing capital.  A few years later the newly re-conglomerated firm took on the name USX and moved its headquarters to Houston.  The Steel City would be left without Big Steel.


Non-gaussian noise in the Pittsburgh machine

So how far have we come in bringing Pittsburgh into the 21st century? Today its all about open data. PG: Expert to evangelize in Pittsburgh for open data.

But we have been communicating data for a long time. Note coincidentally the Trib has a piece on the 50th anniversary of the touch tone phone:50 years ago, touch-tone phones began a communication revolution.   If it were me, I would have added a little context of local businesses that still use their trusty rotary dial. Why I dunno, but they are out there. I wonder, is it cheaper to keep your rotary service?  I wonder if young'uns even know how to use rotary dials any longer. It is not completely intuitive.

Most don't quite get what we mean when we talk about open data.  Reminds me of the great video of the disruptive technology of a half century earlier, the direct dial (rotary) phone.  It required an entirely new (think about how different it was) way of thinking about the phone, and thus required some training (see below, h/t to UCLA Professor Daniel Mitchell for posting some years ago). So a phone is a phone is about as true as data is data.  We need a training video on open data.  That or come to a live session tomorrow in Oakland. Subtle, eh?

and just for good measure since we are talking about phone history... How about Pittsburgh's phone history and Mayor Flaherty's historic first call using AT&T's picturephone, a service predicted to grow rapidly at the time. It did last longer than Qube did, but not by much. This was the start of the entire service and originally the system was only within Pittsburgh.  So don't think the Pittsburgh on the technology cutting edge story is something new for the record.  Anyway, watch Pete in action:

But back to our open data quest.  Still a long way to go.  Note the big news recently that real time bus location will be available on the East BuswayOpen Data?  Not! or at least not yet. Data is still locked into a proprietary system that would not even be necessary if the data were just made available. Probably cheaper to implement and if opened up, I just have a feeling there are more than a few able programmers in town who would make great use of the data quickly and across a wide range of mediums. 

Addendum: See comments, but subsequent to that news story it appears the raw data for the EBA real time data is online in what looks like a valid gtfs feed no less.  I am not sure the world is fully aware of that, but not to quibble... big progress! Now if we can just get a real time feed of data from all those newfangled parking machines throughout the city.  ;-0


Tuesday, November 19, 2013

What the water gave me

One of those über boring stories that most folks gloss over. Trib: Pittsburgh Water Authority to Borrow $80 million. Remarkably that's the only coverage I see as yet of one of the bigger municipal finance stories in months.

Yet hidden in there is a piece of municipal finance history as the PWSA looks to finally be refinancing a big chunk of its variable rate bond that has been a consistent source of debate (for a few of us) and certainly cost.

Be sure of one thing... in the next year all sorts of things will make all sorts of headlines in city government, but the biggest, and most important, battles of all will be (has already been?) over control of the multi-billion dollar investments soon to be required for water and sewer infrastructure. Where will those decisions be made? Mostly at public water and sewer authorities.  So the battle over governance of the PWSA and Alcosan are far bigger things not only in the sheer $$$ that will be spent, but even more importantly how it all will be spent. We just won't be paying all that much attention.

Remember the consternation over the financial bond deal JP Morgan once set up for PWSA?  Did anyone understand it then and does anyone really know who wound up as the biggest financial winners in the end?  Some say economists are waont to make up numbers, the real accounting for this borders on the metaphysical. From the yunzer wayback machine:


Monday, November 18, 2013


So you think you know your Pittsburgh funiculars?  Then you have to check out this interactive map: A Short History of Pittsburgh's Inclines

Someone out there must know something more about the North Side's Ridgewood Incline?


Friday, November 15, 2013

East Liberty bohème

PG has a note on the Ace Hotel being planned for East Liberty: Hip hotel sets sights on East Liberty. If you want a bit more the project was also written up a year go in NextCity: Ace in the Allegheny.

If you really think all this East Liberty development is new, note the story earlier in the week on project just a few blocks away: Retail strip Indigo Square brings new shops to East Liberty.  To me the new retail strip looks just like the Friendship Plaza development there on the same exact spot a half century ago. (scroll down to see a photo)

But I take the actual Indigo Hotel is coming (maybe? kind of? next year?).....  over 6 years since the project was first mentioned here.

Still..  no denying it has been a long path for the neighborhood since Sears announced it was closing its East Liberty store 20 years ago this year... and a remarkable 34 years since Mansmanns closed.

For those who might not have read it (I figure most have), the single best long form on the story of East Liberty in the modern era remains Dan Fitzpatrick's series in the PG: The Story of Urban Renewal. (for those who are curious, Dan is now at the WSJ)

It's even been 14 years since Home Depot opened, setting off much of the redevelopment that followed.  If you wonder why there is a pizza shop in the parking lot, its story made the front page of the Wall Street Journal once. Some forget that pushing the Home Depot project came awfully close to getting Murphy unelected at 4 years earlier than he left office, so strong was the opposition to displacing the pizza shop despite its location adjacent to the shuttered Sears building. It may have been the biggest economic development story mentioned (by both sides mind you) in the 2001 election. With Home Depot though, you have real data that retail could be successful and spurred a look from a wider set of eyes nationally.

Someone asked me recently what I thought was catalyst for all of what is continuing to be redeveloped in East Liberty.  There is no one answer of course, but one thing that I think never gets appreciated, but really is awfully important, is the effort  to relocate the Yellow Cab headquarters out of East Liberty.  Big huge space that displaced any if not all of the potential retail that came once it was gone...  I'm pretty sure little of that Baum corridor redevelopment could have happened if the taxi lot was still there.

Now if we can just get the same effort to save Mount Oliver, Hill District, Homewood-Brushton and Hazelwood since it appears that even today the French government is advising its citizens to avoid  those neighborhoods specifically. Per the WashPo:16 American cities foreign governments warn their citizens about.  I swear the inclusion of Pittsburgh in that list is the French way of getting back at us for entertaining Josh Wander for so long.

Non sequitur but required reading is the deep truth in buzzfeed:  10 Questions People From Pittsburgh Are Tired Of Answering


Thursday, November 14, 2013

Millennial Destination

Just for filler today we will pass on William Frey's work as reported in the Wall Street Journal: Millennials Flock to Washington After Abandoning City in Recession

The actual data there is for all large metros and what it does indeed show is an estimated net migration of 'millennials' into the Pittsburgh region. Not the largest of flows, but comparatively not bad as per Frey's benchmarking.  For certain not bad when compared to Pittsburgh past across most any past time period  which saw persistent negative net out-migration.  This supports my belief that we are now* into our 6th year at least of net in-migration of younger working age population. So young folks voting with their feet are landing in Pittsburgh.  I'll append a little more later if I have time.


Tuesday, November 12, 2013

The butterfly lands in the Allegheny Valley

If ever there was a strong example of the butterfly in politics, the news is out that Senator Ferlo is not going to seek reelection.. 

Before that, I just have to say it's hard to believe the Senator is only 61.  Seems like he has been a fixture of local politics for longer than that. 

But a few years ago a graduate student hired as an intern for Senator Jane Orie set off a chain of events that led to the unlikely news today that Jim Ferlo would walk away from politics.  First the math, it was long known that population trends within Pennsylvania would take out a couple state house seats and a large part of a state senate district from the Pittsburgh region.  Remember that the first redistricting plan had the Mon Valley district once held.  When Senator Logan left office, the newly elected Jim Brewster was the most junior senator. By longstanding precedent, the most junior incumbent, the most junior of the minority party in Harrisburg that is, was the most vulnerable.  So it made sense that Brewster's district was cut up and divided among neigboring districts. Then the long winding legal case against Senator Orie finally forced her to resign. No legal problems for Senator Orie and likely both she and Ferlo would have had safe seats for another decade. 

 Only in subsequent machinations, the whole redistricting plan was thrown out. When redone, it was Senator Orie's district that was carved up and an entirely new map of senate districts was worked out.  But since Senator Orie's more Republican district was carved up the impact was to make neighboring districts less safe for Democrats. That map was going to be made to work out in favor of the party drawing the maps of course. One truism is that all politics starts with redistricting. 

So Ferlo was left with a district that was far more Republican than it ever was before, certainly with barely much in common with what it looked like in the past.  In truth the 38th district had been stretched ever farther over several decades along the Allegheny River Valley to keep it a relatively safe Democratic district for former Senator Bodack. So it went from one oddly drawn geography that actually made some sense in terms of poltical consistency... to a more compact geography that is going to be far more split in how it votes.  

Not to skip over a long career, at the very least least the yet to be named future city finance director should thank Senator Ferlo for the $$ it does not lose the next time a major skyscraper downtown is sold thanks to the recently revised transfer tax law.  Over decades, it could be a figure not just in the 7 figures, but maybe 8?

So just as a reminder... the district is  changing from this:

to this:

Which I'll point out looks like an awful lot of red, but the population density is nearly the perfect inverse of the colors so it actually balanced out a fair bit.  Still, it's basically a North Hills district with that tumb pushing into Highland Park for the sole purpose of capturing Senator Ferlo's home. Any future race is going to be a bit divisive in that it includes some of the darkest blues and darkest reds in the county. Is there a moderate of either party in the house? 


Monday, November 11, 2013

Greatest Generation

Nationally an estimated 2.1 million WW2 era veterans were still with us in 2010, but that number is projected to drop to under 300K by the end of this decade. If you want one number for the Pittsburgh MSA, as of September 30, 2013, the Department of Veterans Affairs estimates there are 161 thousand veterans in the 7 county Pittsburgh region.

I recently compiled more information on the size of the local population of veterans. The statistics that jumped out at me is that the number of World War II era veterans in the Pittsburgh MSA is down to under 23 thousand in 2012 and probably less today.  It is a number I'm just guessing was  close to half million in Southwestern Pennsylvania just after the war. Looking at the comparable estimate from 2010, I get 28,600.  So roughly 7-8 WWII era veterans are passing away each day in the region. Reunions such as that for the Doolittle Raiders are coming to an end.

Also worth noting how different sevice experience is by age. Consider that by one estimate, nationally 85% of all men age 85-89 are veterans. I'm sure that statistic is similar locally. 

Other than that I'll just pass along the Census Bureau's infographic on Veterans nationally: 

A Snapshot of Our Nation's Veterans infographic image [Source: U.S. Census Bureau]


Sunday, November 10, 2013

Pittsburgh Drilling then, Pittsburgh drilling now

So the PG has a story on the (future) potential drilling for natural gas within the limits of the city of Pittsburgh proper.  See: Beneath Pittsburgh lies abundance of gas

What caught my eye was the quote from the industry that they just were not even considering drilling in the city.  ""I can't imagine anybody wanting to tackle that. The urban development, coupled with the surface topography and all that, it's just going to be a nightmare."  Funny thing is that the urban environment was much the same year and decades into the past, the surface topology was much the same millenia ago.  So it must have never been the case that drilling in the city was being planned, being a nightmare and all??

So I don't doubt that statement is true today, but just as surely it was not the case in the near past.  I myself received multiple inquires from different landman representing different drillers looking at properties in the densist part of the city in Lawrenceville and environs. Don't believe me, I have scanned one of the notices. You can look up who Dale Property Services was mostly working for at the time. There was even a mass pitch to residents at the former St. Matthew's chuch in Lawrenceville. For sure leases were signed across the city, concentrated in Lawrenceville, Lincoln Place and of course many of the cemeteries in the city sold their rights to frack underneath.  Remember, most leases have time constraints for development to begin, else the developer loses their rights, so there were several folks seriously planning on drilling in the city  in the near future before they realized public sentiment might not make it easy to pursue.  Might be interesting for someone to look into what happened with all those earlier leases in the city, for some we might be coming up on 5 years since signing I speculate.

Again, I believe it when they describe the current interest in drilling in the city as minimal, but there seems to be no memory of the earlier frenzy which was real for several years before cooling.  Potter counted only 102 new natural gas leases in the city of Pittsburgh proper between 2009-2011.


Friday, November 08, 2013

Reassessment math forever

Some curious story to me today on city of Pittsburgh finances:PG:  Pittsburgh property tax revenue fails to reach projections. Trib: Pittsburgh tax revenue off by millions, hike possible

So the story goes that in the current FY/CY 2013, there may be a shortfall in real estate tax collections on the order of $3.5 million, and the story makes it sound like it has something to do with reassessments?  Write that number down and keep reading.

In FY2012 (i.e. the previous year before any impact of assessments), the projected revenue for current year real estate taxes was $130.578 million, but the city only collected $126.821 million in the end. So a shortfall of several million that could not have been attributed to reassessment math? (table 10, page 115 of the city's CAFR).  My quick math there says the shortfall last year was over $3.75 million, which is actually a bit higher than the projected shortfall in the story today for FY2013.  Did anyone think of writing a story like this at the end of FY/CY 2012, let alone with data only from mid-year?  Curious.

Anyway, is there a reassessment math story here?  or is the story that they expecting to come in coming in closer to the projections than they did the very previous year?

There is technically this issue of delinquent collections which is another line in the budget, but those show even more volatility over the last decade, and even more discrepency with regards to projections, all having nothing to do with reassessments by definition.  The point is the discrepency between projections and collections  last year is right in line with the numbers in today's story, actually less right now.  So the implied causality with reassessments is a more than a stretch.  Maybe they were more or less aggressive with collecting delinquent taxes?  Maybe there were more or less delinquent taxes to collect upon?  We all know there is a lot of new redevelopment of formerly dead parcels going on? Maybe that is the story?


Wednesday, November 06, 2013

From the archives

I know everyone wants a map, but what is there to map?  So just for filler and for no reason other than the obvious.  Someone needs to get an updated card I suppose:

addendum.. my colleagues have obliged on the map thing

and ICYMI... someone is already on their way out of town. No shame.


Wander Wins, Wander Wins

No the typesetters here are not drunk, nor do I think any of the linotronic machines at any of the major paperswere were running late last night to update today's stories.  With the precognition we know our media friends are capable of, all of today's stories were written last week, or could have been. Still, it looks like Josh Wander is coming in close to 5,000 votes total. I can't see the detail results yet, but that is going to be a record low. Not even close to any potential runner-up.  Granted it comes in what appears to be the lowest total turnout general election in the city in more than a century. The last general election in 2009 has around 52 thousand votes cast in total. Does not appear 2013 is anywhere close to that. Also it's been pointed out that Cosetti's percentage results way back when were possibly lower, but remember he was a Democrat until hours (or was it minutes?) before the filing deadline, so you could argue against his Republican cred. No mistaking that Wander was running as a Republican.

I mean, Joe Weinroth likely received more than 3 times as many votes as Josh not very long ago. Bankrupt and foreclosed upon, living on a friend's couch, Harry Fost received 3 times as many votes.  Ok, that is gratuitous, but you get the point.

Anyways... an updated and longer history of note:

By the way. Who can blame Rand Paul from cribbing off of Wikipedia.  All that data before 2001 comes from what the Wiki gnomes have put into individual Wikipedia pages for each past city of Pittsburgh election which I had never seen before. Someone has been busy.  Kudos. 

Look at that trend however.  Lots of political history embedded in that.  The long term trend is clear, but it sure looks like the Flaherty era is when Republicans really gave up the ghost on city elections. 


Tuesday, November 05, 2013

The race Josh Wander does not want to win

So here is a quick look at the total vote counts for all the Republican candidates for mayor in the city of Pittsburgh since 1969.  The older data is all cribbed from Wikipedia.  Of note is that huge total one John Tabor received in 1969, likely more than the total vote count today, and certainly more than would be needed to win today for sure. But, can Josh Wander keep from winning the prize as the lowest total ever recorded in the modern era for a major party candidate?  The low is technically Joe Cosetti, who was unfortunately caught up in the monumental slugfest between Foerster and Caligiuri. Carmine is right behind though. I'd call the Mendoza line around 12 thousand votes.  If Wander comes close he will surely set another record for the lowest expenditure per vote captured. His whole campaign likely cost less than what was spent on his airfare getting back from Russia.  He missed a great photo op for sure today.


Monday, November 04, 2013

The spirits that bind us

Catching up and last week PG looked debates over Allegheny County's drink tax. PG: Allegheny County drink tax a cash cow, but despised. Seems as if alcohol consumption going gangbusters. Yet remember all the pessimism over what the drink tax could mean here and in particular the web site: which still says:
Do we need another reason to force our residents and visitors to outlying counties? Or another obstacle to attracting younger generations to our region?

Obstacle to attracting younger generations to our region? Really? Maybe it is just old people drinking more?  From the data in the PG article, drink tax revenues are up 27% in the county since 2010. That is a lot more than the rate of population, income, or GDP growth, so you have to ask yourself if Allegheny County is actually gaining competitiveness in serving the drinking class.  Nothing new to all of this, and in the past I have looked at the trends in drinking establishments in Allegheny County. That and Allegheny Countys migration and population trends seemed to have turned around right as the drink tax was going up. Some only like to loosely impute causality when the correlation works they way that works for their argument.

In fact, some wonkification just out says that Jefferson Hills, PA (IN ALLEGHENY COUNTY) is one of the Best Towns for Young Families.  Young people.... Allegheny County... but, I thought.... oh, nevermind.

A bit unrelated, but points to the story today that points out how the city of Pittsburgh once had a mandated position of city gauger whose job was not only to count whiskey barrels, but also the proof of what they contained.  You just had to have a lot of pull to get that job.  That and you had to provide your own dydrometer.


Sunday, November 03, 2013

All Marcellus Considered

Try to come to one conclusion on all things marcellus and you will be chasing your tail. Just recently you have these stories.  

Oil and Gas Journal: TGP upgrade boosts Marcellus gas transport

Ohio Marcellus Shale gas growing faster than expected

New York down...  Lansing Star: Limited Potential for Shale Gas in New York

Forbes columnist says up...  Shale Gas Boom At 'Tip Of Iceberg'

But no matter the economics of it, I do have this overall impression the media is moderating its coveage of late.  Take the USAToday: Could fracking boom peter out sooner than DOE expects?

I mean, I don't think you have even the meta marcellus new coverage we used to have all around.  Folks are moving on.