Monday, March 24, 2014

En entendant data

We are waiting on county and MSA level data for 2013 to be released later this week.  So the big question is whether net migration into the Pittsburgh region is going to be positive for one more year.  Maybe not.  We have already learned the estimates at the state level and that trend looks like this.




So you see that net domestic outmigration from Pennsylvania nearly doubled between the 2011-12 period and 2012-2013 period. That is by definition a number that includes what is happening here. If I had to speculate, net domestic migration for the Pittsburgh region is going to awfully close to zero, or balanced flows in vs. flows out, but would not be surprised by a small negative number.  With small but positive net international migration (net international migration is virtually always positive) we might keep with the trend and be able to say more folks are moving in than moving out, but it will be close. Whether the region's total population is increasing is another story.  Natural population decline continues and will offset any small positive net migration into the region.  So the overall population change is going to be awfully close to zero. We might talk more about whether migration or population change is positive or negative, but really I suspect the overall characterization for both will be pretty even.

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