Friday, May 20, 2016

Pennsylvania jobs frackageddon

Just a quick update, adding in the April jobs data just out, of a graphic I put together last month focusing on the fate of mining jobs in Pennsylvania. Again this is a bit contrived in that I subtract out what is happening in Pittsburgh so as to get at what is happening across central Pennsylvania.

In short the jobs Frackageddon continues across most of Pennsylvania. It is not as fast a loss in the Pittsburgh data I excluded here for the record, but elsewhere in Pennsylvania things are now beyond dire.  In fact the net loss in mining jobs between March and April (-900) is actually the single biggest month over month job loss I calculate anywhere in the time series.  So the job loss is accelerating.  I am amazed because, as you see in the graphic, the loss of these jobs is already down 85% from peak back to a pre-shale baseline. You would have thought that after the bulk of the jobs had gone, the loss would begin to slow down, which is not the case here.  It reinforces what I said in the earlier post that in the end it will not just be the shale jobs that go away, but the coal jobs the shale boom eviscerated. If true, we are heading down to a new baseline that is lower than where we started.


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