Friday, November 04, 2016

Post Soylent Burgh update

I have been conducting a natural experiment of sorts here.   I was wondering if this random corner of the 'Burghosphere (remember that term? Others do) remained quiescent, would others pick up commenting on such obscure things as I have obsessed on here?  The results are mixed, but lean toward no.

So here is one of those stats that is an awfully lot more important than you might think given it has had so little notice.  The latest update (with data for 2015) on natural population change for Pennsylvania municipalities has been available.  Following up on past posts here, this is the trend in births and deaths for City of Pittsburgh residents.

Take for what you want.  The shift back to natural population gains (births > deaths) from natural population decline (deaths > births) happened about a decade ago and continues. In itself that has been a positive for population trends in the city of Pittsburgh, but the scale of  the net gain (births minus deaths) is narrowing. I believe that in the long run city of Pittsburgh population will depend more on migration trends, but still the natural population trends are important.

The trend in number of births to city of Pittsburgh residents continues a slow but steady decline.  Not immensely below where births were a decade ago, before the number bumped up a bit, but not showing any sign of trending up at the very least.  The implications for that number span across things like future school enrollments and projections for the number of families living in the city proper. Also the fact that there has been steady natural population gains is important context for interpreting overall city population trends, which have shown more stability this decade than in decades previous.

Caveats as always. 2015 data is clearly labeled preliminary by the state.  There has been some upward revisions in past preliminary data on births, so the 2015 data may show up as higher in the end.


Blogger BrianTH said...

I wonder how much the ongoing decline in fertility rates among younger women is contributing to that ongoing decline.

Generally it will be interesting to see if the observed boom in young adult population ever translates into an increase in middle-aged adults (not one to one, but at a normal retention rate), and whether that in turn ever translates to an increase in births.

Sunday, November 13, 2016 8:22:00 AM  
Blogger Anosh Alassi said...

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Thursday, November 16, 2017 2:29:00 AM  

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