Monday, December 12, 2016

Uninsurance trends across Pennsylvania

I saw this data journalism story out of Michigan, Mlive.com: See how uninsured numbers have dropped in your Michigan county, and didn’t quickly see anything like that for Pennsylvania. So just if you are interested here are the comparable numbers for Pennsylvania counties. As noted for Michigan as well, this data (American Community Survey 1-year estimates) only reports annual data for larger counties. I will leave for others to punditfy.

Percentage of Population with no health insurance coverage
Large Pennsylvania Counties, 2010 and 2015
PA County 2010 2015 Change
Adams 9.5% 5.3% -4.2
Allegheny 8.0% 4.8% -3.2
Armstrong 8.5% 5.9% -2.6
Beaver 7.4% 3.6% -3.8
Berks 9.8% 6.9% -2.9
Blair 10.8% 4.3% -6.5
Bucks 6.7% 4.8% -1.9
Butler 7.6% 3.2% -4.4
Cambria 9.1% 5.0% -4.1
Carbon 14.5% 4.8% -9.7
Centre 8.6% 5.7% -2.9
Chester 8.6% 5.2% -3.4
Clearfield 11.1% 5.3% -5.8
Columbia 8.2% 3.7% -4.5
Crawford 14.3% 9.8% -4.5
Cumberland 7.1% 6.1% -1.0
Dauphin 10.3% 5.5% -4.8
Delaware 9.2% 5.2% -4.0
Erie 9.6% 4.9% -4.7
Fayette 12.5% 5.3% -7.2
Franklin 12.7% 9.9% -2.8
Indiana 11.6% 8.5% -3.1
Lackawanna 10.4% 5.7% -4.7
Lancaster 13.3% 11.4% -1.9
Lawrence 11.0% 5.2% -5.8
Lebanon 10.3% 9.5% -0.8
Lehigh 10.7% 7.0% -3.7
Luzerne 11.0% 6.0% -5.0
Lycoming 10.9% 5.0% -5.9
Mercer 11.3% 6.6% -4.7
Monroe 11.6% 7.3% -4.3
Montgomery 6.5% 4.3% -2.2
Northampton 9.3% 4.9% -4.4
Northumberland 11.5% 5.4% -6.1
Philadelphia 14.9% 9.7% -5.2
Schuylkill 9.4% 7.8% -1.6
Somerset 12.8% 8.1% -4.7
Washington 8.6% 4.1% -4.5
Westmoreland 7.9% 4.2% -3.7
York 9.1% 6.1% -3.0
Compiled from:
Census Bureau - American Community Survey (ACS)
1-year estimates data

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Friday, December 02, 2016

unemployment trends (how is that for a boring title)



This is the first Friday of the month and all economic data geeks know that monthly labor force data was released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  This includes the headline unemployment rate number that most of the business news keys off of.  So today the national unemployment rate dropped to 4.6% which is the lowest it has been since in 2007.

Something I’ve always wanted to do, and I am sure others have done this – though I can’t find quite the same graphic out there.  How has the national unemployment changed over the course of recent presidential administrations.  Since 1948 there have been 12 presidents. Truman was of course already in office in 1948, and Obama’s term is not quite over.  Of those 12, if you look at literally the month they took office (usually January data of the respective year) to the January they left office (or other months were history intervened) I have graphed the trends.  6 presidents saw the unemployment rate decrease over the course of their administration. 5 presidents say the unemployment rate increase.  6 + 5 = 11 so the 12th.   President Carter’s administration both began and ended at 7.5% unemployment, so no change. 

Here is what I get, and I've split gainers and decliners into two graphs for presentation:




Caveats as always.  I've included the inauguration, or other form of transition, month in both the beginning or ending of each time series.  The bigger question is whether it is fair to attribute - implicit in this type of graphic - unemployment rate changes to a particular president in the first few months of their administration.  They say the American economy is more cruise ship than speed boat, which means it take a long time to turn.  Probably fairer to redo these graphs based on a 6 month lag to the month of taking office.  Maybe for another day.

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